US wind developers are racing to complete projects before federal tax credits expire, but permitting delays threaten growth beyond 2030, Wood Mackenzie said in a Sunday note.
Wood Mackenzie raised its five-year forecast for greenfield wind additions 5% over the quarter, with annual additions expected to peak in 2027 as offshore projects boost near-term supply.
Construction starts rose 8% over the year in Q1 2026, while firm turbine orders exceeded five times the level recorded a year earlier, reflecting urgency around the tax-credit deadline.
Projects that began physical construction before July 4, 2026, can qualify for tax credits if they enter service by Dec. 31, 2030, thereby forcing developers to advance permitting, offtake, financing, and equipment procurement.
Projects that miss the construction-start deadline must reach full operation by Dec. 31, 2027 to secure the credits, making project execution more important than simply maintaining a large pipeline.
Corporate power purchase agreement demand is also strengthening as data centers drive electricity consumption. Google's (GOOG) 1.9-gigawatt portfolio deal with Xcel Energy (XEL) highlights the growing role of corporate buyers in supporting new wind capacity.
Permitting delays are creating a two-speed market, with mature projects advancing while less-developed projects face uncertainty, pushing peak onshore additions from 2027 to 2028.
Offshore wind should boost near-term supply as projects near completion, but policy risks persist, with more than 2,900 square kilometers of leases entering termination settlements in H1 2026.
The federal government expects proceeds from a $2.7 billion offshore lease buyout to support conventional energy, geothermal and fossil fuel projects, Wood Mackenzie said.
The phaseout of wind tax credits will weigh on US wind additions beyond 2030, but an aging fleet will create repowering opportunities, with 81 GW expected to reach 15 years old by 2035.
Replacing older turbines with larger, more efficient models could boost output while using existing land rights, grid connections and permitting precedents, lowering costs and shortening development timelines.
Better technology and higher capacity factors could reduce reliance on tax incentives, while rising electricity demand may strengthen project economics, the note added.
The market is unlikely to face a sharp drop in 2030, with repowering and construction-ready projects offering growth opportunities after tax credits expire, Wood Mackenzie said.
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