3:00 Tuesday vs 3:00 Monday
2yr 99-29 vs 100-00; 4.160% vs 4.123%
5yr 99-12 vs 99-19+; 4.255% vs 4.338%
10yr 98-24 vs 99-05; 4.529% vs 4.479%
30yr 99-09+ vs 100-03; 4.503% vs 4.993%
2/10 36.505 bps vs 35.463 bps
5/30 78.597 bps vs 77.992 bps
Related Articles
Treasury
Scotiabank Forecasts More Moderate Jobs Gain For June's Labour Force Survey
The Labour Force Survey for June, to be released next Friday, could post a more moderate gain than May's 88,000 surge in employment, wrote Scotiabank Economics in a note.Derek Holt, who heads Scotiabank's capital markets economics, is "guesstimating" a 10,000 gain. "After the large 88k job gain in May it may be natural to assume that June could offer some payback. The historical evidence and the methodology employed by the Labour Force Survey would counsel against expecting as much," he said.The LFS's rotating sample methodology has the same survey dwellings remain in the sample for six months. One conceivable answer for why past big gains can lead to further gains is that most of the sample remains intact from month to month, Holt said.June is also normally a significant month for seasonally unadjusted jobs, usually posting between 100,000 to 300,000 extra jobs, he added.Canada's labour market is broadly in a rough state of balance, with the 6.6% unemployment rate close to the OECD's estimate of the "natural equilibrium rate" of unemployment.The unemployment rate is expected to decline as tighter immigration policy shrinks the labour force. Wage settlements for the one-third of workers that are unionized in Canada and subject to collective bargaining exercises remain high with expected gains over the next 3-4 year contract periods well above the BoC's 2% inflation target, Holt said.
$CXY
Treasury
BMO Economics Outlines Reasons For Optimism on Canadian Economy
Despite the CUSMA trade agreement now being subjected to annual reviews after the US refused to sign a 16-year extension, there are good reasons to be optimistic on the Canadian economy in the second half of this year, and into 2027, especially since growth seems to be recovering after stalling in the previous four quarters, BMO Economics wrote in a note.Real GDP surprised on the high side in April with a 0.5% bounce, and early indications point to additional gains in May and June, said senior economist Robert Kavcic. "This suggests that growth was close to 2% in Q2, after dipping 0.1% in the prior year (including, famously, small declines in the two previous quarters)," Kavcic wrote.The TSX has also churned out an 11% advance so far this year and was again nearing a record high by week's end, he pointed out."What's particularly noteworthy is the sustained nature of the rally. To pick but one metric, the index is up by almost 60% from two years ago, or nearly 55% adjusted for inflation. That latter increase has been topped only three times in the past 65 years-in the late 1970s commodity boom, in the late 1990s tech boom, and in the rebound from the 2009 crash. At the very least, the wealth effect flowing from these heavy gains should support consumer spending (and may help explain, in part, the prices some were willing to pay for said World Cup matches!)," Kavcic said.Oil and gas output has expanded 6% in the past year and almost 5% annualized over the past three years. The AI boom, with output in computing infrastructure, data processing and related services has jumped more than 10% in the past year.Nonresidential construction is forging ahead: Many provinces are running aggressive capital spending programs, and the federal government is fast-tracking major projects.The immediate jump in the defense budget to 2% of GDP has also added C$10 billion to the economy this year.Canada's financial sector has been resilient to the housing downturn and wave of mortgage renewals, while benefitting from favourable market conditions. "It's not all boom, but it's certainly not all doom in Canada's economy," Kavcic said.
$CXY
Treasury
GTA Housing Market Conditions Continued to Improve in June, With Sales up 9.4%, Says TRREB
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market conditions continued to improve in June, with sales growing year-over-year even as new listings declined over the same period, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) said Friday.GTA Realtors reported a 9.4% year-over-year jump to 6,770 home sales through TRREB's MLS System in June."After a slow start in the first quarter, we saw a marked improvement in home sales in the second quarter of this year. This result followed TRREB's 2026 outlook, which called for a year of two halves. We expect accelerating transactions and more competition between buyers in the last six months of the year, helping to satisfy pent-up demand and ultimately resulting in renewed price growth," said TRREB president Daniel Steinfeld.The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 5.4% year-over-year in June, and the average selling price down 3.9% to C$1.06 million.On a seasonally adjusted basis, June home sales were up month-over-month compared to May, while new listings were down, suggesting that market conditions have tightened through the spring, the TRREB statement noted.
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