The Labour Force Survey for June, to be released next Friday, could post a more moderate gain than May's 88,000 surge in employment, wrote Scotiabank Economics in a note.
Derek Holt, who heads Scotiabank's capital markets economics, is "guesstimating" a 10,000 gain. "After the large 88k job gain in May it may be natural to assume that June could offer some payback. The historical evidence and the methodology employed by the Labour Force Survey would counsel against expecting as much," he said.
The LFS's rotating sample methodology has the same survey dwellings remain in the sample for six months. One conceivable answer for why past big gains can lead to further gains is that most of the sample remains intact from month to month, Holt said.
June is also normally a significant month for seasonally unadjusted jobs, usually posting between 100,000 to 300,000 extra jobs, he added.
Canada's labour market is broadly in a rough state of balance, with the 6.6% unemployment rate close to the OECD's estimate of the "natural equilibrium rate" of unemployment.
The unemployment rate is expected to decline as tighter immigration policy shrinks the labour force. Wage settlements for the one-third of workers that are unionized in Canada and subject to collective bargaining exercises remain high with expected gains over the next 3-4 year contract periods well above the BoC's 2% inflation target, Holt said.