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US Personal Income, Spending, Price Growth Expected to Slow in June

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Personal income is forecast to rise by 0.3% in June, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, following a 0.7% gain in May.

The report on personal income and consumption for June is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET Thursday.

Wages and salaries are seen as a positive for the headline figure. Private nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June after a 129,000-jobs increase in May, while the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, lifting the aggregate hours index by 0.1% in the month. Hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in June, the same as in the previous month.

For consumption, control group retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles, gas building materials and food services and feeds into the goods PCE calculation, rose by 0.6% in June after a 0.9% gain in the previous month.

Analysts expect personal consumption to increase by 0.4% in June after a 0.7% gain in May. Real PCE, consumption after adjustment for inflation, is expected to increase by 0.4% after 0.3% gain.

PCE prices are forecast to fell by 0.1% after a 0.4% gain in the May report, while core prices are expected to increase by 0.2% after a 0.3% gain.

Analysts expect the year-over-year rate for overall PCE prices to slow to 3.7% from 4.1% in May while core PCE prices are seen at a 3.3% rate, down from 3.4% in May.

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