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US Personal Income Expected to Rebound in March, Spending Growth to Accelerate

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Personal income is forecast to rise by 0.3% in March, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, following a 0.1% decline in February.

The report on personal income and consumption for March is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET Thursday.

Wages and salaries are seen as a modest support for the headline figure. Private nonfarm payrolls rose by 186,000 in March after a 129,000-jobs decrease in February, but the average workweek decreased to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours and the aggregate hours index fell by 0.2% in the month. Hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in March.

For consumption, control group retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles, gas building materials and food services and feeds into the goods PCE calculation, rose by 0.8% in March after a 0.6% gain in the previous month.

Analysts expect personal consumption to increase by 0.9% in March after a 0.5% gain in February. Real PCE, consumption after adjustment for inflation, is expected to increase by 0.3% after 0.1% gain.

PCE prices are forecast to rise by 0.7% after a 0.4% gain in the February report, while core prices are expected to increase by 0.3% after a 0.4% gain.

Analysts expect the year-over-year rate for overall PCE prices to accelerate sharply to 3.5% from 2.8% in February while core PCE prices are seen at 3.2%, up from 3.0% in February.

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