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US Oil Update: Oil Prices Mixed; Traders Await EIA Data

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Crude futures were mixed in Wednesday trading as the market sought to reconcile the IEA's report of an "unprecedented" global supply loss with a downgraded 2026 demand forecast from OPEC.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 0.3% to $102.48 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 0.2% to $107.55/bbl.

"Oil prices dipped after gaining around 8% over the previous three sessions as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank analysts noted.

With President Trump recently dismissing Tehran's peace counteroffer and declaring the ceasefire to be on "massive life support," analysts warn that the market must now price in an extended disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows well into the second half of the year.

"If Hormuz remains shut, the second quarter of 2026 will see the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 6.5mb/d," ANZ noted.

Shipments from Iran's primary export terminals have reportedly reached a virtual standstill, a dramatic collapse for a nation that had previously maintained 1.8 mb/d in exports despite the fighting.

This supply chokehold is rapidly depleting the global inventory buffer.

The IEA's May oil market report, confirmed the severity of the crisis, revealing that 14.4 million barrels per day of Gulf production is currently shut in.

Concurrently, OPEC revised its 2026 global demand growth forecast downward to 1.2 mb/d.

On the supply side, the American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that US crude inventories decreased by 2.19 million barrels for the week ended May 8.

The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

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