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EIA Cuts Henry Hub Forecasts for 2026, 2027 as US Production Rises, Inventories Build

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The Energy Information Administration has lowered its Henry Hub spot price forecast for 2026 to $3.50 per million British thermal units, down from $3.67/MMBtu in April, the agency said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for May released Tuesday.

It has also lowered its 2027 Henry Hub spot price forecast of $3.59/MMBtu to $3.18/MMBtu, a downward revision of about 11.5%.

The revisions were in anticipation of heightened production. "With higher production, we expect natural gas injections into storage during the April-October injection season to be above average," the EIA said.

It added that the Henry Hub price is expected to average $2.83/MMBtu in Q2 2026, about 11% lower than a year earlier.

US dry natural gas production will rise to 110.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 from 107.7 Bcf/d in 2025 before increasing further to 115 Bcf/d in 2027, the EIA forecast showed.

US natural gas consumption will ease to 91.24 Bcf/d in 2026 from 91.88 Bcf/d in 2025 before rising to 94.42 Bcf/d in 2027, according to the EIA outlook.

The EIA expects US LNG exports to increase to 17 Bcf/d in 2026 from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 before climbing further to 18.2 Bcf/d in 2027.

The EIA forecasts US natural gas inventories will end the injection season on Oct. 31 at 7% above the previous five-year average.

US marketed natural gas output rose 4% to average 120.2 Bcf/d in Q1 2026, compared with the year-ago period.

"We expect production to keep rising through 2027, with associated natural gas output increasing as higher crude oil prices support more crude oil production," the EIA said.

Output growth of about 6% in both the Permian and Haynesville regions pushed natural gas production levels higher.

EIA raised its forecast of marketed natural gas production by 1% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027 compared with last month's forecast. This upward revision was based on EIA analysis that shows rising gas-to-oil ratios from many wells in the Permian region.

US liquefied natural gas export capacity surged by about 0.9 billion cubic feet per day in April, driven by the first cargo shipped from Golden Pass LNG Train 1 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 additional production, EIA data showed.

"Corpus Christi Train 6 is scheduled to come online in summer 2026, adding an additional 0.2 Bcf/d of nominal export capacity, but long lead times for adding new export capacity will constrain growth in US LNG exports," the EIA said.

However, global LNG prices remain supported by reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a wide spread between US domestic natural gas prices and international markets.

"Our March and April export estimates are the second- and third-highest ever, behind December 2025 (18.4 Bcf/d)," EIA said.

EIA data showed that LNG exports fell to 17.6 Bcf/d in April from 18.1 Bcf/d in March, dragged down by milder weather globally and lower spot-market demand.

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