FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Futures Rally After US Launches Retaliatory Strikes, Revokes Iran Crude Sale Waiver

By

Crude futures rallied in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the US Central Command said it had launched attacks in response to Iran striking three tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while the US revoked a waiver that had authorized Iranian crude sales.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 5.1% to $72.05 per barrel, while Brent futures climbed 5.2% to $75.76/bbl.

Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said crude prices edged higher after renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted persistent security risks.

On Tuesday, the US Treasury Department revoked a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil in response to attacks on tankers in the Hormuz, after reports of attacks on vessels near and around the strategic waterway revived fears of supply disruptions.

The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control on Tuesday issued a new General License X1, stating that no new transactions involving Iranian oil may take place on or after July 7.

On June 22, General License X was issued in the wake of the peace agreement, allowing transactions for 60 days and valid through August 21.

Additionally, the US Central Command said that it had launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran as retaliation for the earlier attacks on shipping.

"US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway," Centcom posted on X on Tuesday.

Centcom added that the strikes were "in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz."

"Iran's demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire," it added.

As of Tuesday, a total of three tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said, with two fresh attacks on Tuesday targeting vessels transiting the strategic waterway that is central to the US-Iran negotiations. Another tanker had been attacked on Monday.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a liquefied natural gas carrier after ignoring warnings while passing through the Omani route, according to Iranian media reports.

Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed Al Ansari, said the targeting of the Qatari tanker near the Hormuz was an unacceptable attack on the security of international navigation and global energy supplies.

Al Ansari called on Tehran to "immediately cease all practices that undermine regional security or threaten the safety of international maritime navigation." A Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, Widian, was also damaged off Oman's coast.

Saxo Bank strategists said oil prices rose after a Qatari LNG ship was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast as it exited the Strait, raising unease among shipowners while once again testing the US-Iran peace deal.

Meanwhile, global crude prices are projected to face renewed downward pressure as crude production rebounds and trade flows via the strategic waterway recover following the US-Iran peace deal to end the Middle East conflict, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The EIA in its Short-Term Energy Outlook slashed its Brent spot price forecast for Q3 to an average of $74/bbl, about $27/bbl lower than its previous outlook.

The agency projected that US gasoline prices would average about $3.80 per gallon in Q3, down from over $4.20 per gallon in Q2. The decline is forecast to be driven by lower crude oil prices, which account for the largest share of gasoline production costs.

The EIA said that the recovery in supply and the restoration of oil trade flows are expected to ease pressure on global inventories. The agency now forecasts global oil inventories to decline by 2.2 million barrels per day in Q3, lower than its previous forecast of over 7 million b/d.

Related Articles

Commodities

US Weekly Natural Gas Prices Edge Lower as Storage Build Outweighs Heat-Driven Demand

US natural gas markets ended the week lower amid higher-than-expected gas injections into storage during the reporting period, despite extreme heat forecasts.In the futures market, the Nymex front-month August contract edged lower to $3.25 per million British thermal unit, from $3.26/MMBtu on June 26.Natural gas spot prices rose by $0.11/MMBtu to $3.33/MMBtu during the week ended July 1, from $3.22/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.Prices were mixed across major regional hubs, from a decrease of $1.96/MMBtu at SoCal Border-Ehrenberg to an increase of $2.32/MMBtu at the Algonquin Citygate, which serves the Boston area.The Northeast regions saw prices surge as the heat dome raised temperatures, leading to pipeline capacity constraints.US LNG feedgas flows remained elevated throughout the past week, consistently above 19 billion cubic feet per day, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.50 Bcf, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model, as major export facilities came back online after being shut for Spring maintenance.The net injection into storage for the week ended June 26 was 87 Bcf, ahead of last week's 76 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 2,922 Bcf, according to EIA data.The net build came in above forecasts, which expected a net injection of 81 Bcf. It was also above last year's net build of 61 Bcf and the five-year average for this period of 64 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com.All regions reported a net injection during the week, with the Midwest and Eastern regions reporting the biggest spikes, at 34 Bcf and 29 Bcf, respectively, while South Central was up 20 Bcf.At 2,922 Bcf, US working gas inventories were 23 Bcf, or 1% below the corresponding period a year ago, while reporting a surplus of 175 Bcf, or 6% compared to the five-year average for this period.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, inventories were now in a "comfortable position heading into peak Summer," but analysts warned that a protracted heatwave across the country could erode this surplus relative to the five-year average, adding to the market's bullish sentiment.Meanwhile, weather forecasts remained bullish, with almost the entire country set to experience above-normal temperatures from July 10 to July 16, according to the National Weather Service.According to forecasts from Severe-Weather Europe, a "historic Heat Dome" is parked over the nation, expected to bring intense heat and soaring humidity, with over 230 million Americans experiencing daytime highs over 90 degrees Fahrenheit.This will lead to increased space-cooling demand, driving gas-fired power consumption over the next few weeks before temperatures normalize.A total of 36 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, up from 35 the previous week, with a combined capacity of 136 Bcf, 1 Bcf higher than a week earlier.The US gas rig count rose by one from 125 the previous week to 126, in the week ending July 2, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Thursday. That compares with 108 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, remained unchanged at 770 from last week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $14.03/MMBtu for the week ended July 1, $0.21/MMBtu higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $15.76/MMBtu, about $0.14/MMBtu above the prior week.

$BKR
Commodities

PJM Activates Emergency Demand Response as Hot Weather Alerts Remain in Effect

PJM Interconnection said it activated its Pre-Emergency Demand Response and Emergency Demand Response programs across its footprint on Friday afternoon to increase system reserves for the evening peak, according to an operations update.A Hot Weather Alert remained in effect through Friday and has been extended through Saturday for the Mid-Atlantic and Dominion transmission zones, PJM said.A Maximum Generation Alert and a Load Management Alert also remain in effect, PJM said.PJM's peak instantaneous load hit 162.7 gigawatts between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. on Thursday, according to preliminary figures. PJM noted that Thursday's peak load may have exceeded its all-time record of 165.6 GW in 2006.It added he preliminary figure was reduced by the use of demand response programs and that an official preliminary peak load will not be available until after the 60-day period required to estimate demand."During the July 2 evening peak, PJM executed a series of procedures to manage demand and maximize supply when some generation tripped offline, including calling on emergency demand response," according to the update.The operator also warned transmission owners and utilities that they may need to curtail electricity supplied to data centers and other large loads by transferring them to backup generation, if needed."Depending on how demand materializes at or near the peak July 3 and based on ongoing conditions, PJM could need to activate these same procedures or others," PJM said.PJM said it would continue to closely monitor weather forecasts and system conditions and would provide additional operational updates as needed.

Commodities

Metacon Secures $11.5 Million for Uppsala Green Hydrogen Plant

Swedish energy technology firm Metacon said on Friday it had been awarded up to 111 million Swedish Krona ($11.5 million) in government funding to construct a 10-megawatt electrolysis plant in Uppsala.The funding, provided through the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's "Klimatklivet" initiative, will cover 55% of the total investment of 202 million Swedish krona, the company said in a statement.The remaining investment is partially covered by assets acquired from Hynion's bankruptcy estate last year.Metacon said that the facility, to be located at the Hovgarden waste management site operated by Uppsala Vatten och Avfall, is designed to produce about 1,480 tons of hydrogen per year.The company expects the plant to be operational in H1 2029, with construction slated to begin in H1 2026.The hydrogen from the facility would be supplied to industrial customers and hydrogen refueling stations in central Sweden, a market where supply remains limited and heavily reliant on deliveries from other regions and countries.Metacon said the project is projected to cut carbon dioxide emissions by about 23,000 tons per year, primarily by replacing diesel fuel in heavy transport and reducing the need for long-distance hydrogen transport.The facility will also integrate with existing operations at the Hovgarden site, using oxygen generated during electrolysis for leachate treatment and recovering excess heat for on-site heating, thereby improving overall energy efficiency.