US natural gas markets ended the week lower amid higher-than-expected gas injections into storage during the reporting period, despite extreme heat forecasts.
In the futures market, the Nymex front-month August contract edged lower to $3.25 per million British thermal unit, from $3.26/MMBtu on June 26.
Natural gas spot prices rose by $0.11/MMBtu to $3.33/MMBtu during the week ended July 1, from $3.22/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.
Prices were mixed across major regional hubs, from a decrease of $1.96/MMBtu at SoCal Border-Ehrenberg to an increase of $2.32/MMBtu at the Algonquin Citygate, which serves the Boston area.
The Northeast regions saw prices surge as the heat dome raised temperatures, leading to pipeline capacity constraints.
US LNG feedgas flows remained elevated throughout the past week, consistently above 19 billion cubic feet per day, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.50 Bcf, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model, as major export facilities came back online after being shut for Spring maintenance.
The net injection into storage for the week ended June 26 was 87 Bcf, ahead of last week's 76 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 2,922 Bcf, according to EIA data.
The net build came in above forecasts, which expected a net injection of 81 Bcf. It was also above last year's net build of 61 Bcf and the five-year average for this period of 64 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com.
All regions reported a net injection during the week, with the Midwest and Eastern regions reporting the biggest spikes, at 34 Bcf and 29 Bcf, respectively, while South Central was up 20 Bcf.
At 2,922 Bcf, US working gas inventories were 23 Bcf, or 1% below the corresponding period a year ago, while reporting a surplus of 175 Bcf, or 6% compared to the five-year average for this period.
According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, inventories were now in a "comfortable position heading into peak Summer," but analysts warned that a protracted heatwave across the country could erode this surplus relative to the five-year average, adding to the market's bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, weather forecasts remained bullish, with almost the entire country set to experience above-normal temperatures from July 10 to July 16, according to the National Weather Service.
According to forecasts from Severe-Weather Europe, a "historic Heat Dome" is parked over the nation, expected to bring intense heat and soaring humidity, with over 230 million Americans experiencing daytime highs over 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
This will lead to increased space-cooling demand, driving gas-fired power consumption over the next few weeks before temperatures normalize.
A total of 36 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, up from 35 the previous week, with a combined capacity of 136 Bcf, 1 Bcf higher than a week earlier.
The US gas rig count rose by one from 125 the previous week to 126, in the week ending July 2, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Thursday. That compares with 108 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.
The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, remained unchanged at 770 from last week.
In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $14.03/MMBtu for the week ended July 1, $0.21/MMBtu higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $15.76/MMBtu, about $0.14/MMBtu above the prior week.