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US Oil Update: Futures Hold Steady With US-Iran Talks in Focus

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Crude oil prices were little changed in midday trading on Friday as investors assessed a potential breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, while markets positioned themselves ahead of the start of the US summer driving season.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased by 0.08% to $96.48 per barrel, while Brent futures were UP 0.63% to $103.22/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said major hurdles remain between the US and Iran, with Washington demanding that Tehran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and commit to ending uranium enrichment, terms Iranian leaders have publicly resisted.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive ordering Iran's enriched uranium to remain in the country, denting hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict, according to media reports on Thursday.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Sweden, where he is attending a Nato summit, that there had been "slight progress" in the latest round of talks aimed at preventing a wider regional conflict.

"We are doing everything we can to achieve the global consensus necessary to prevent Iran from creating a tolling system, and we're trying to use the United Nations," Rubio reportedly said at the Nato summit.

Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Friday, where he is expected to meet key Iranian figures to discuss Iran-US peace talks and regional peace and stability.

Separately, a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the US to help secure a deal, according to media reports.

"Markets are still searching for signs of progress in a potential deal between the US and Iran. While there are signs of optimism, uncertainty reigns," ING strategists said on Friday.

On the operational side, the number of rigs drilling in the US rose by seven to 558 in the week ending May 22, Baker Hughes (BKR) said on Friday, amid a resurgence in domestic activity as the Middle East conflict drives up energy prices.

The US oil rig count rose by 10 from 415 the previous week to 425, while the number of gas rigs dropped by three from 128 the previous week to 125.

Meanwhile, US consumers continue to feel the impact of energy inflation, as gasoline prices have climbed to their highest level for the Memorial Day holiday since 2022, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday.

The EIA said the national average price for regular gasoline reached $4.49 per gallon on May 18, up 42% from a year earlier and marking the highest level for the Monday before Memorial Day weekend since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted oil markets three years ago.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil markets could soon enter a "red zone" as stocks deplete and demand picks up during the summer travel season.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the single most important solution to the Iran war energy shock is a full and unconditional reopening of the Hormuz.

Price: $66.17, Change: $+0.37, Percent Change: +0.56%

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Market Chatter: Qatari Negotiating Team Travels to Tehran in US-Backed Push to Advance Iran War Talks

A Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the US to support talks aimed at ending the conflict with Iran and addressing remaining disputes, Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.Doha had previously stepped back from mediation after coming under Iranian missile and drone attack during the conflict, but is now re-engaging despite earlier strains.The renewed Qatari role underscores its continued position as a key back channel between Washington and Tehran, alongside its status as a US ally hosting Al Udeid Air Base, Reuters said.Qatar's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment by.Negotiations remain stalled over Iran's uranium enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively closed, disrupting energy flows and halting much of Qatar's LNG export capacity.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday there were "some good signs" in talks but cautioned against optimism, adding progress could emerge over the next few days. He reiterated that Pakistan remains the primary interlocutor with Washington.A senior Iranian source reportedly said Thursday that gaps had narrowed, but no deal had been reached.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Steadies as US-Iran Peace Talks Yield 'Slight Progress'

EMEA crude futures largely held steady in after-hours trading on Friday as markets weighed the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations against the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude futures rose by 0.85% to $105.68 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up by 1.25% to $103.43/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that although Iran said the latest US proposal had narrowed differences, conflicting signals from officials continued to cloud prospects for a breakthrough and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Sweden, where he is attending a Nato summit, that there had been "slight progress" in the latest round of talks aimed at preventing a wider regional conflict.However, Rubio said that key deadlocks, specifically regarding Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and Tehran's demands for management authority over the Hormuz, remain unresolved."We are doing everything we can to achieve the global consensus necessary to prevent Iran from creating a tolling system, and we're trying to use the United Nations," Rubio told reporters at the Nato summit.Though Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the two sides, comments from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei about keeping Tehran's uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait clouded the outlook for a breakthrough.Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, is reportedly on his way to Tehran, where he is expected to meet key Iranian figures to discuss Iran-US peace talks and regional peace and stability.Separately, a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the US to help secure a deal, according to media reports."Markets are still searching for signs of progress in a potential deal between the US and Iran. While there are signs of optimism, uncertainty reigns," ING strategists said on Friday.Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict, now in its 12th week, has choked traffic via the Strait, keeping global energy markets tight and driving energy prices and inflation higher.Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards said on Friday that 35 commercial vessels, including oil tankers and container ships, safely transited the Hormuz over the past 24 hours. The US military, on the other hand, said it had redirected 97 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled four others since imposing the blockade on April 13.Kpler strategists said on Friday that mobility through the Strait is improving incrementally, but access remains conditional, politically controlled and exposed to rapid disruption.On the supply front, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday that global oil markets could soon enter a "red zone" as global stocks deplete and as demand picks up during the summer travel season.IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the single most important solution to the Iran war energy shock is a full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil & Energy

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Ease on Potential Progress in US-Iran Peace Talks

European natural gas futures eased in after-hours trade on Friday, tracking weaker crude oil as markets weighed progress in Middle East peace efforts alongside improving European supply conditions.The Dutch TTF front-month contract fell 2.921% to 47.965 euros ($55.67) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract declined 3.741% to 116.30 British pence ($1.56) per therm.Sentiment was supported earlier in the session by a rebound in Norwegian supply after some maintenance work at the Troll gas field concluded.Flows from Norway to Europe rose roughly 40%, lifting output to about 260 million cubic meters per day, according to estimates cited by Trading Economics.The increase helped offset tighter production elsewhere in the region. Norwegian exports are typically constrained during the April-September maintenance season.Storage remains a central market concern ahead of the winter season. Elevated prices earlier in the year have limited injections during the summer refill period. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed EU gas storage at 36.99% of capacity, compared with 45.29% at the same point last year.National levels remain uneven, with Germany at 28.48%, France at 37.74%, Sweden at 9.94%, and Portugal at 91.26%.On liquefied natural gas, market participants flagged potential competition from Asia for available cargoes, which could constrain Europe's ability to rebuild inventories even as spot prices soften.Mind Energy noted that Asian demand could emerge as a competing pull factor, limiting restocking flexibility during the summer window.Weather outlooks added little directional clarity. Atmospheric G2 forecast a shift toward a more Atlantic-driven pattern over the next two weeks, likely bringing more unsettled and variable conditions across northwestern Europe. However, it cautioned that model divergence remains wide, leaving short-term demand signals uncertain.