Washington's strategy toward Iran is increasingly centered on economic pressure rather than direct military escalation, as a tightening maritime blockade sharply reduces Tehran's oil exports and revenue, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi said in a Thursday note.
US President Donald Trump, on 18 May, again delayed a potential resumption of strikes on Iran, reportedly after requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Gulf officials later denied knowledge of any imminent operation, raising further doubts about repeated US strike warnings.
Since mid-April, the conflict has evolved into a low-intensity economic war focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Since April 13, no tanker carrying Iranian crude has crossed the blockade line between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
The impact on Iran's export system is intensifying. Iranian crude loadings averaged 2.1 million barrels per day in the two weeks before the blockade but have since fallen to 640,000 b/d.
Part of the decline may be linked to the oil spill reported near Kharg Island earlier this month, while the reactivation of retired tankers has raised concerns over the condition of Iran's storage and export infrastructure.
Inventories are rising rapidly. Iranian crude on water inside the Persian Gulf has increased from 23 million barrels to 42 million barrels since the blockade began.
Onshore inventories have also risen by roughly 15 million barrels, mainly at Kharg Island and Goreh, where key storage and pumping facilities are located.
Meanwhile, Iranian crude stored outside the blockade zone has dropped from 122 million barrels to 89 million barrels over the past month, reducing barrels available to Chinese buyers.
Chinese teapot refiners are also drawing down inventories amid weak refining margins. In addition, OFAC recently sanctioned 19 more ships linked to the Iranian oil trade, including four VLCCs, complicating future deliveries into China.
If the blockade holds, analysts estimate Iran's effective oil export revenues could approach zero within 60-70 days, potentially making the blockade more damaging than intermittent military strikes, Kpler said.