Crude futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Thursday as market participants weighed the impact of US-Iran military strikes on crude flows and whether heightened Middle East tensions would translate into sustained supply disruptions.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 2.3% to $71.83 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped 2.5% to $76.09/bbl.
Gelber & Associates strategists said WTI crude is trading at $71.74/bbl, down $1.78/bbl and about 2.4% day-over-day, as the market continues to move sideways to lower while traders separate crude availability from broader fuel market stress.
"Refined products are still flashing tighter conditions, with diesel and gasoline markets carrying more strain than the underlying crude contract as refinery capacity, low product inventories, and Russian fuel disruptions keep margins elevated," Gelber analysts said in a Thursday note.
On Thursday, the UKMTO said that commercial vessel traffic via the Strait of Hormuz continued at reduced levels as ship operators maintained a cautious approach following recent attacks on merchant vessels and heightened geopolitical tensions in the region.
The agency said traffic through the Hormuz is projected to remain at reduced levels across both the northern Iranian-controlled route and the southern Omani corridor, reflecting continued caution among operators.
The latest commercial vessel-tracking data showed a drop-off in Hormuz transits, as renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes and a decline in tanker positioning signal that the strategic waterway remains vulnerable.
Kpler said that recent strong export volumes through the waterway have largely reflected the movement of cargoes delayed during the period of disruption rather than a broad-based recovery in regular shipping activity.
Meanwhile, Lloyd's List said in an X post that no vessels above 10,000 deadweight tons have transited the Southern Highway with their AIS switched on since July 7, although at least two ships are believed to have crossed dark.
Saxo Bank strategists said that the disruption is a reminder that the Strait never fully reopened and that the recent removal of the geopolitical risk premium may have been premature.
The US and Iran traded strikes for a second day on Wednesday, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated by striking Washington's military infrastructure in the Middle East, raising fears of a return to war after little progress in efforts to secure a diplomatic outcome.
US Central Command said it hit about 90 targets on Wednesday, after 80 the previous day, "to further degrade" Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan.
Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that the US can no longer pursue policies of bullying and reneging on its commitments without facing consequences.
"... Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you'll get hit," Ghalibaf said in a post on X, reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will only open with "Iranian arrangements."
Going forward, Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict, the security of shipping through the Strait and the scale of any disruption to Gulf oil exports will remain the key drivers of oil prices.
Meanwhile, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 411.4 mmbbls in the week ended July 3, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.
Crude inventories are now about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.