FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Crude Rallies as US-Iran Impasse Dashes Hopes for Peace Deal

By

Crude oil futures surged in midday trading on Tuesday as prospects for a peace deal to end the conflict between the US and Iran dimmed, as the two countries' stark differences pushed global supply concerns back to the fore.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 3.40% to $101.44 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.97% to $107.30/bbl.

On Monday, President Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on "life support," citing differences over Iran's demands to end hostilities on all fronts, lifting of a US naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales and compensation for war damage.

Tehran also emphasized its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that normally handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

During a White House interaction with reporters on Monday, Trump said that the response from Iran to his latest offer was a "piece of garbage", while noting that "it's just a question of time" with Tehran, the US does not need to rush.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X on Tuesday, "There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal."

Separately, Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian parliament's foreign policy and security committee, said the country could enrich uranium to up to 90% purity if the US-Israeli alliance launches another attack, according to Iranian media.

"Oil prices climbed for a second day as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note Monday.

Meanwhile, shipping via the Hormuz has slowed to a trickle, with data analytics firm Kpler projecting that 79% of 53 vessels which entered the Persian Gulf before the outbreak of the conflict are unable to exit.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, aimed at guiding vessels through the Strait.

The first attempt triggered attacks by Iranian forces on a US military vessel and the UAE's key oil export facility at Fujairah, Hynes said.

On the supply front, disruptions to crude oil production in the Middle East have surged since April, with major Gulf producers collectively shutting in about 10.5 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The EIA said Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain have all curtailed output amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, with the Hormuz assumed to remain effectively closed until late May.

The agency now projects global crude inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2, while prices will average $89 per barrel by Q4.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Treasury Sanctions 12 Over IRGC-Linked Iranian Oil Sales, Shipments to China

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher as Trump Warns Iran Ceasefire 'On Life Support'

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday after President Trump dismissed Iran's latest peace proposal and declared a fragile month-long ceasefire to be on "life support," stoking fears of a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 2.75% to $98.25 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 3.37% to $104.70/bbl.Trump is reportedly meeting with his national security team to discuss next steps in the Middle East conflict, including possibly resuming military action after he rejected Iran's response to a US peace proposal."I would call it the weakest, right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us, I didn't even finish reading it," Trump told reporters at the White House. "I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support."US President rejected Iran's demands for a total end to Washington's naval blockade and war reparations, calling the response "stupid" and "unacceptable."The continued closure of the Hormuz since late February has severely disrupted global flows of crude, fuels, and gas, with the International Energy Agency calling it the biggest supply shock in history.Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the conflict was "not over," raising fears that tensions in the Middle East could escalate again and further threaten energy supplies."After briefly trading down to USD 96 last week on renewed hopes the strait would reopen, Brent has rebounded above USD 105," Saxo Bank strategists said, citing Morgan Stanley analysts who described the Middle East conflict as a "race against time."Iran has called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also demanded compensation for war damage and resumption of Iranian oil sales.ING strategists said the oil market remains heavily headline-driven, with prices surging after Trump rejected Iran's latest peace plan.Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran's proposal for ending the recent war was reasonable, as the US continues to insist on "unreasonable demands" shaped by the Israeli regime.On Monday, the country's Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Iran's armed forces are battle-ready to deliver a crushing, well-deserved response to any aggression.Tehran reportedly deployed small submarines to act as an "invisible guardian" of the Hormuz amid a series of rejected peace deals with the US.Kpler said that 53 vessels operated by the world's top 10 container shipping lines entered the Persian Gulf before the outbreak of conflict, of which 79% are unable to exit.

Oil & Energy

63% US Citizens Say Gas Price Spike Hurting Household Finances, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Says

About 63% of US citizens said rising gasoline prices hurt their household finances, up from 55% in a March poll, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday.Reuters/Ipsos collected responses online from 1,254 US adults nationwide between May 8 and May 11.Among Republicans, 51% said higher gasoline prices affected their finances, compared with 74% Democrats.Over two months after US and Israeli strikes began on Feb. 28, the Iran conflict continued to raise concerns over energy markets and rising fuel costs, the poll showed.After Iran disrupted nearly one-fifth of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict lifted US gasoline prices by roughly 50%, Reuters reported.Ahead of the November midterm elections, Republicans face mounting pressure as 65% of respondents held Republicans responsible for higher fuel prices, while 27% said it was because of the Democrats.About 80% of Americans expect gasoline prices to rise further, while nearly 28% said they may delay, shorten or cancel summer travel plans if prices stay elevated.Trump began his second term in January 2025, campaigning to lower costs for US consumers.A total of 66% respondents said Trump had not clearly explained US military involvement in Iran.