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US Oil Output Climbs to 13.9 Million b/d as Regional Rig Trends Diverge, RBC Says

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US crude oil production rose to 13.9 million barrels per day in April, up 468,000 b/d or 3.5% over the year, but the gains were highly concentrated and challenge the industry narrative that operators are broadly "doing more with less," RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Wednesday.

Though overall output continues to set new highs, RBC analysts said the relationship between production and rig counts has diverged sharply by region, with efficiency gains uneven and increasingly dependent on geology, infrastructure and inventory quality.

Offshore production rose to 2.13 million b/d, up 316,000 b/d, or 17.5% over the year, supported by a modest increase of two rigs over the period, even as offshore rig counts slipped by one between April and June.

New Mexico continued to post strong growth, with output reaching 2.37 million b/d, up 169,000 b/d, or 7.7% year on year.

RBC said that rig activity in the state rose by three year-on-year and rose by five between April and June, underscoring continued momentum in the Permian Delaware basin.

Texas, by contrast, showed stagnation. Production reached 5.83 million b/d, up 75,000 b/d, or 1.3% over the year, even as rig counts fell by 57 over the same period.

RBC said that output is slightly below levels seen in mid-2025, despite a recent rebound of 28 rigs from April to June.

The bank said that the remaining 48 states collectively continue to operate at or below maintenance levels.

roduction there fell 92,000 b/d, or 2.5% year on year, alongside a decline of 14 rigs, with North Dakota, Ohio and Oklahoma showing the most pronounced monthly swings.

RBC analysts said that the industry's future performance will depend less on a blanket efficiency narrative and more on a complex combination of variables, including inventory quality, individual well recovery rates, and surface infrastructure optimization.

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