FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall on Expectations of Larger Storage Build

By

US natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trading on Wednesday as expectations for a larger-than-average increase in domestic gas inventories outweighed support from an intense heatwave expected to drive cooling demand across much of the country.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract fell 1.95% to $3.211 per million British thermal units.

Market participants await Thursday's weekly US Energy Information Administration storage report. According to Barchart, analysts expect natural gas inventories to rise by about 83 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 26, well above the five-year average injection of 64 Bcf for the corresponding week.

Gelber & Associates projected an 81 Bcf storage injection. "For now, the market is not ignoring the heat, but it is also not treating it as a reason for a clean breakout while storage remains healthy and the forecast moderates beyond the front-end heat pulse," Gelber & Associates said in a Wednesday market note. "Furthermore, most forecasting models have maintained warmer-than-normal summer temperatures for the past few months, so it is likely priced in at face value."

Near-term weather conditions, however, remain supportive of demand. Forecasts for July 1-5 continue to call for triple-digit daily highs across major population centers in the Midwest and Eastern US, lifting electricity demand and projected natural gas consumption.

However, prices also came under pressure as weather forecasts for mid-July turned slightly cooler, potentially easing demand for air conditioning among power generators. Barchart reported that the Commodity Weather Group expects near-normal seasonal temperatures across the eastern US during July 6-15.

Barchart, citing BNEF data, said Lower 48 US gas demand reached 80.2 Bcf per day on Wednesday, up 0.8 Bcf from the previous day and 4.0% higher than a year earlier. Celsius Energy estimated power-sector gas consumption at 39.2 Bcf on June 29, an increase of 3.9 Bcf from the previous day, although still 3.4 Bcf below the same day last year.

On the supply side, US dry gas production averaged 110.5 Bcf/d on Wednesday, down 1.6 Bcf from the previous day but still 1.7% above year-earlier levels, reflecting continued robust output.

Meanwhile, estimated net feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals slipped by 0.5 Bcf/d to 19.2 Bcf/d on Wednesday, remaining at historically strong levels and up 0.7% from a week earlier.

Related Articles

Commodities

US Oil Update: Crude Holds Steady as Markets Weigh US-Iran Peace Talks, Supply Glut Risks

Crude oil futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Tuesday as markets weighed signs of potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations against expectations of a looming supply glut later in the year.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.9% to $70.10 per barrel, while Brent futures eased 0.3% to $72.92/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said oil prices are likely to remain under downward pressure as Gulf supply recovers and the risk premium continues to fade, though uncertainty could keep volatility elevated.More ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz after traffic slowed over the weekend after two ships were hit, with vessel tracking data showing an increase in crossings, although they remain below pre-war levels.Warren Patterson, head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said that oil flows averaged about 7 million barrels per day over the past week, compared to pre-war flows of 20 million b/d.However, Patterson said they did not need to see Strait of Hormuz oil flows return to 20 million b/d for the Persian Gulf oil supply to fully recover.Kpler analysts also said that tanker markets are adjusting to the partial reopening of the Strait, with Middle East Gulf VLCC rates easing as inbound ballasters return to the region, reducing tightness following a period of disruption.Iran has reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Hormuz, with Ebrahim Azizi, head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, reportedly saying that the strategic waterway is an "inseparable" part of Iran's national sovereignty.Kim said that Iran reiterated its intention to oversee traffic through the Strait, highlighting that differences over the energy chokepoint's future governance remain unresolved.Meanwhile, US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner are in Doha as part of ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran and as the two sides try to temper tensions after tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend.Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday that the Doha meeting "is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not," adding that they were "going to find out."However, Iranian officials denied that talks between the two sides were scheduled for this week, noting that an Iranian technical delegation's visit to Qatar this week was unrelated to US officials' visit to the country.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaril Baghaei said Iran has not yet entered the phase of final agreement negotiations and will not do so until the US begins implementing five key provisions of the MoU.On the demand front, the Energy Information Administration earlier in June projected that global crude demand will fall by 1.1 million b/d in 2026, while the International Energy Agency slashed its demand outlook to about 1.1 million b/d.

Commodities

EnCore Wins 20-Year NRC License Renewal for South Dakota Uranium Project

EnCore Energy (EU) secured a 20-year renewal of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission license for its Dewey Burdock uranium project, completing the federal permitting process, the company said Tuesday.The license renewal followed the completion of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Safety Evaluation Report, which marked the final regulatory step. Earlier, the agency issued an Environmental Assessment, a Finding of No Significant Impact and a Programmatic Agreement, EnCore said.Separately, the Bureau of Land Management cleared the company to begin building infrastructure on federally managed lands within the Dewey Burdock project, allowing construction activities to proceed on those lands.The project still requires approvals from South Dakota before commercial operations can begin, even though enCore has now obtained every required federal permit, the company said.EnCore has already started the state permitting process, which represents the final regulatory stage before the in-situ recovery uranium project can enter full operational status, the company said.

$EU
Commodities

US Feedstock Demand for Biomass-Based Diesel Rose in April, Soybean Oil Usage Drops, EIA Says

US feedstock demand for biomass-based diesel production grew 4%, or 130 million pounds, in April to 3.43 billion pounds, up 4.5% over 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration's monthly data released Tuesday.Waste feeds, such as used cooking oil and tallow, led usage in April.Distiller corn oil usage reached a record amount of 477 million pounds in April.Soybean oil usage totaled 1.22 billion pounds in April, down 5% compared with the previous month, reaching a 38% slate in April.Biodiesel production at 686 million pounds raised April's capacity to 79%, up from 72% the previous month.Renewable diesel production at 537 million pounds jumped with the help of higher margins of 7% in April. RD utilization rates jumped to 73%, up from 71% the prior month.EIA reported that the composition of soybean oil production in April was 56% BD and 44% RD, compared with a 54/46 split in March.Zander Capozzola, principal consultant at Argus Media Consulting Services, said the lower futures markets seem well overdone given the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East."SBO futures have shed 13% since the start of the month as signs of easing tensions in the Strait weighed across energy markets, overshadowing ongoing geopolitical risks. Market sentiment has also been undermined by expectations of bearish US acreage data due later this week," the analyst said."Yet for US feedstock markets, the resumption of imports presents a bearish fundamental counterweight," Capozzola added.