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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rebound as Traders Weigh Global Supply Risks Against Cooler Weather

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US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trade on Friday, recovering the previous session's losses as traders balanced concerns over global supply disruptions against expectations for weaker near-term cooling demand.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 2.03% to $2.916 per million British thermal units.

According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, August 2026 natural gas futures gained 5 cents to settle at $2.91/MMBtu, while the Summer 2026 strip also rose 5 cents to $2.90/MMBtu. Further along the curve, the Winter 2026-27 contract added 2 cents, finishing at $3.55/MMBtu.

Despite Friday's recovery, most contracts remained lower on both a weekly and monthly basis after the market recently moved into a lower trading range, according to the note.

Analysts at Barchart said Friday's advance was supported by a sharp rally in European natural gas prices, which climbed to a 3.75-month high amid concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran could disrupt energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Such disruptions could reduce LNG supplies to Europe and prompt European buyers to increase purchases of US LNG, providing additional support for US natural gas prices.

However, gains were capped by forecasts for cooler US weather, which could reduce demand for natural gas-fired electricity generation for air conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said updated forecasts called for below-average temperatures across the Southwest and Mid-Atlantic through July 26.

The rebound followed Thursday's decline, when natural gas futures fell to a two-month low after US government data showed an increase larger than what most analysts expected in weekly natural gas storage inventories, reinforcing concerns about ample domestic supply.

Meanwhile, Barchart, citing BNEF data, put US gas production at 112.6 billion cubic feet per day on Friday, up 0.6 Bcf from the day before and 3.6% more than a year ago.

Total Lower-48 gas demand was estimated at 80.5 Bcf/d, down 2.3 Bcf on the day, but up 1.2% year over year. Celsius Energy said Powerburn for Thursday was 48.7 Bcf, down 0.7 Bcf on the day, but up 1 Bcf on the year.

Net LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals were estimated at 18.1 Bcf/d, up 0.5% from the previous week.

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