US Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise Ahead of Inventory Data on Warmer Forecasts

US natural gas futures climbed in midday trading on Wednesday, supported by hotter near-term weather forecasts and expectations that weekly storage injections will remain below year-earlier levels for an eighth consecutive week.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both rose 1.82% to $3.193 per million British thermal units.

According to NRG, a brief heat event is expected across much of the Midwest and Northeast through the end of the week, with temperatures reaching the 90s Fahrenheit. However, the firm noted that temperatures are forecast to return to average or below-average levels across much of the country after this week.

Looking further ahead, Trading Economics said additional support came from forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures during the second half of June.

NRG said that both June 2026 month-to-date demand and overall 2026 year-to-date demand are running about 1 billion cubic feet per day below the levels seen during the same periods last year. However, the company noted that structural growth in the power burn sector, particularly from data centers, is averaging roughly 0.5 Bcf/d higher on both a June month-to-date and 2026 year-to-date basis compared with the corresponding periods in 2025.

Meanwhile, Trading Economics, citing LSEG data, said average natural gas production in the US Lower 48 states has eased to 108.8 Bcf/d so far in June from 109.7 Bcf/d in May and that reduced production was showing up in weaker inventory injections.

The last seven storage reports have each recorded injections below year-ago levels, gradually eroding the five-year average surplus to the current 5%. NRG said market participants are forecasting a 101 Bcf injection for the week ended June 5, 8 Bcf lower than the build a year ago.

On the export side, Trading Economics said net flows to major US LNG export terminals have fallen to 16.3 Bcf/d so far in June from 17.1 Bcf/d in May. Seasonal maintenance at facilities, including Golden Pass and Freeport LNG in Texas, has continued to weigh on export volumes, the firm said.

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Cool Weather Forecasts

US natural gas futures softened further in after-hours trading on Tuesday as abundant supply and mild weather forecasts outweighed demand signals.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both eased 0.29% to $3.138 per million British thermal units."Price action remains largely rangebound, with weekly changes still limited to only a few cents across most of the curve," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said in a note.Weather expectations remain a key driver. Cooler-than-normal temperatures forecast for June 14-18 across the Midwest and eastern US are expected to curb air-conditioning demand and put pressure on prices, according to Barchart, citing Vaisala data.It also said Lower-48 natural gas demand rose to 73.2 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up 0.8 Bcf/d from the previous session and 5.8% higher over the year.The US Energy Information Administration's outlook shows a split summer demand profile, with June notably weak before demand strengthens later in the season.For June, the EIA forecasts 240 cooling degree days, down 15% over the year and 9% below the 10-year average, signaling reduced air-conditioning demand at the start of summer.Conditions then tighten into the third quarter, with CDDs rising 8% from a year earlier as hotter weather boosts cooling demand. That late-summer strength is expected to offset the soft start in June.Overall, the EIA still projects 2026 cooling demand averaging 4% above 2025 and 4% above the 10-year average, indicating firmer underlying summer consumption despite the early weakness.Daily US dry gas production was reported at 110.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, down 2 Bcf/d from the prior day but still up 2.2% over the year, BNEF data showed.The EIA expects US gas output to rise 3.3% in 2026 to 111.0 Bcf/d, with further growth in 2027 driven by Permian associated gas and Haynesville output.Despite steady demand growth, elevated production is expected to keep inventories above the five-year average and cap upside in Henry Hub prices. The EIA projects prices averaging $3.34/MMBtu in the second half of this year and $3.46/MMBtu in 2027, down sharply from prior forecasts.LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals also increased, reaching 17.9 Bcf/d, up 0.3 Bcf/d on the day and 8.7% higher over the week.

EPA Extends Waiver For Summertime National Sales of E15 Blended Gasoline

The Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department of Energy on Tuesday extended the summertime waiver for the sales of E15 blended gasoline through June 29.The waiver regarding the requirements in 40 CFR 1090.215 allows for the production and distribution of a single national gasoline pool with 9% to 15% ethanol content at a common Reid Vapor Pressure standard of 10 pounds per square inch, according to the EPA announcement.In the same waiver letter, EPA is reissuing a waiver for federal enforcement of state-level "boutique" fuel requirements for gasoline under 40 CFR 1090.215. Both waivers share a 20-day effective window from June 10, 2026, to June 29, 2026.The EPA noted that states that have adopted fuel standards under consumer protection and/or air quality statutes may need to waive those provisions in State code to enable implementation of the Federal waiver in the States.In May, the EPA extended a waiver allowing the nationwide summer sales of E15, effective until June 9.

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise Ahead of Inventory Data on Warmer Forecasts

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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Cool Weather Forecasts
US natural gas futures softened further in after-hours trading on Tuesday as abundant supply and mild weather forecasts outweighed demand signals.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both eased 0.29% to $3.138 per million British thermal units."Price action remains largely rangebound, with weekly changes still limited to only a few cents across most of the curve," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said in a note.Weather expectations remain a key driver. Cooler-than-normal temperatures forecast for June 14-18 across the Midwest and eastern US are expected to curb air-conditioning demand and put pressure on prices, according to Barchart, citing Vaisala data.It also said Lower-48 natural gas demand rose to 73.2 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up 0.8 Bcf/d from the previous session and 5.8% higher over the year.The US Energy Information Administration's outlook shows a split summer demand profile, with June notably weak before demand strengthens later in the season.For June, the EIA forecasts 240 cooling degree days, down 15% over the year and 9% below the 10-year average, signaling reduced air-conditioning demand at the start of summer.Conditions then tighten into the third quarter, with CDDs rising 8% from a year earlier as hotter weather boosts cooling demand. That late-summer strength is expected to offset the soft start in June.Overall, the EIA still projects 2026 cooling demand averaging 4% above 2025 and 4% above the 10-year average, indicating firmer underlying summer consumption despite the early weakness.Daily US dry gas production was reported at 110.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, down 2 Bcf/d from the prior day but still up 2.2% over the year, BNEF data showed.The EIA expects US gas output to rise 3.3% in 2026 to 111.0 Bcf/d, with further growth in 2027 driven by Permian associated gas and Haynesville output.Despite steady demand growth, elevated production is expected to keep inventories above the five-year average and cap upside in Henry Hub prices. The EIA projects prices averaging $3.34/MMBtu in the second half of this year and $3.46/MMBtu in 2027, down sharply from prior forecasts.LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals also increased, reaching 17.9 Bcf/d, up 0.3 Bcf/d on the day and 8.7% higher over the week.

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The Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department of Energy on Tuesday extended the summertime waiver for the sales of E15 blended gasoline through June 29.The waiver regarding the requirements in 40 CFR 1090.215 allows for the production and distribution of a single national gasoline pool with 9% to 15% ethanol content at a common Reid Vapor Pressure standard of 10 pounds per square inch, according to the EPA announcement.In the same waiver letter, EPA is reissuing a waiver for federal enforcement of state-level "boutique" fuel requirements for gasoline under 40 CFR 1090.215. Both waivers share a 20-day effective window from June 10, 2026, to June 29, 2026.The EPA noted that states that have adopted fuel standards under consumer protection and/or air quality statutes may need to waive those provisions in State code to enable implementation of the Federal waiver in the States.In May, the EPA extended a waiver allowing the nationwide summer sales of E15, effective until June 9.