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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Cool Weather Forecasts

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US natural gas futures softened further in after-hours trading on Tuesday as abundant supply and mild weather forecasts outweighed demand signals.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both eased 0.29% to $3.138 per million British thermal units.

"Price action remains largely rangebound, with weekly changes still limited to only a few cents across most of the curve," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said in a note.

Weather expectations remain a key driver. Cooler-than-normal temperatures forecast for June 14-18 across the Midwest and eastern US are expected to curb air-conditioning demand and put pressure on prices, according to Barchart, citing Vaisala data.

It also said Lower-48 natural gas demand rose to 73.2 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up 0.8 Bcf/d from the previous session and 5.8% higher over the year.

The US Energy Information Administration's outlook shows a split summer demand profile, with June notably weak before demand strengthens later in the season.

For June, the EIA forecasts 240 cooling degree days, down 15% over the year and 9% below the 10-year average, signaling reduced air-conditioning demand at the start of summer.

Conditions then tighten into the third quarter, with CDDs rising 8% from a year earlier as hotter weather boosts cooling demand. That late-summer strength is expected to offset the soft start in June.

Overall, the EIA still projects 2026 cooling demand averaging 4% above 2025 and 4% above the 10-year average, indicating firmer underlying summer consumption despite the early weakness.

Daily US dry gas production was reported at 110.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, down 2 Bcf/d from the prior day but still up 2.2% over the year, BNEF data showed.

The EIA expects US gas output to rise 3.3% in 2026 to 111.0 Bcf/d, with further growth in 2027 driven by Permian associated gas and Haynesville output.

Despite steady demand growth, elevated production is expected to keep inventories above the five-year average and cap upside in Henry Hub prices. The EIA projects prices averaging $3.34/MMBtu in the second half of this year and $3.46/MMBtu in 2027, down sharply from prior forecasts.

LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals also increased, reaching 17.9 Bcf/d, up 0.3 Bcf/d on the day and 8.7% higher over the week.

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