US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Warmer Weather Outlook Ahead of EIA Storage Data

US natural gas futures rose in after-hours trading on Wednesday as forecasts of hotter weather later this month boosted expectations of cooling demand, and traders positioned ahead of Thursday's weekly government storage report.

Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose 1.43%, to $3.185 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas prices recovered from a 1.5-week low as short covering emerged following warmer US weather forecasts, according to Barchart. Citing Vaisala, Barchart said forecasts shifted warmer in the Midwest and above normal across the eastern US for June 15-19, potentially increasing natural gas demand from power generators supplying air-conditioning load.

Fundamentals were also supportive. Power-sector demand strengthened as summer cooling needs began to build, with power burn rising to 43.3 billion cubic feet per day, up 6.1% from the previous day, according to Gelber & Associates.

LNG feedgas demand remained firm near 18.4 Bcf/d as export facilities continued recovering from seasonal maintenance.

On the supply side, Barchart, citing BNEF data, said Lower 48 dry gas production was 109.1 Bcf/d on Wednesday, down slightly from the prior day but 1.8% above year-ago levels. Gelber similarly noted domestic production near a two-week low at 109.3 Bcf/d following recent regional pullbacks. Stronger Canadian imports, however, helped cushion supply losses, rising 7.4% day-over-day to 5.7 Bcf/d.

Market attention remained focused on Thursday's Energy Information Administration storage report. Barchart said consensus expectations call for a 100-Bcf injection, while G&A estimated a slightly smaller 98-Bcf build. Both projections would compare with a 109-Bcf injection during the same week last year.

Recent data have generally supported prices. "Chances for a third straight bullish EIA storage report surprise tomorrow could offer further upside," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics said in a note, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Rubin cautioned, however, that "rising production and lack of sustained summer heat may allow bullish early-summer seasonality to peak."

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Cool Weather Forecasts

US natural gas futures softened further in after-hours trading on Tuesday as abundant supply and mild weather forecasts outweighed demand signals.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both eased 0.29% to $3.138 per million British thermal units."Price action remains largely rangebound, with weekly changes still limited to only a few cents across most of the curve," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said in a note.Weather expectations remain a key driver. Cooler-than-normal temperatures forecast for June 14-18 across the Midwest and eastern US are expected to curb air-conditioning demand and put pressure on prices, according to Barchart, citing Vaisala data.It also said Lower-48 natural gas demand rose to 73.2 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up 0.8 Bcf/d from the previous session and 5.8% higher over the year.The US Energy Information Administration's outlook shows a split summer demand profile, with June notably weak before demand strengthens later in the season.For June, the EIA forecasts 240 cooling degree days, down 15% over the year and 9% below the 10-year average, signaling reduced air-conditioning demand at the start of summer.Conditions then tighten into the third quarter, with CDDs rising 8% from a year earlier as hotter weather boosts cooling demand. That late-summer strength is expected to offset the soft start in June.Overall, the EIA still projects 2026 cooling demand averaging 4% above 2025 and 4% above the 10-year average, indicating firmer underlying summer consumption despite the early weakness.Daily US dry gas production was reported at 110.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, down 2 Bcf/d from the prior day but still up 2.2% over the year, BNEF data showed.The EIA expects US gas output to rise 3.3% in 2026 to 111.0 Bcf/d, with further growth in 2027 driven by Permian associated gas and Haynesville output.Despite steady demand growth, elevated production is expected to keep inventories above the five-year average and cap upside in Henry Hub prices. The EIA projects prices averaging $3.34/MMBtu in the second half of this year and $3.46/MMBtu in 2027, down sharply from prior forecasts.LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals also increased, reaching 17.9 Bcf/d, up 0.3 Bcf/d on the day and 8.7% higher over the week.

EPA Extends Waiver For Summertime National Sales of E15 Blended Gasoline

The Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department of Energy on Tuesday extended the summertime waiver for the sales of E15 blended gasoline through June 29.The waiver regarding the requirements in 40 CFR 1090.215 allows for the production and distribution of a single national gasoline pool with 9% to 15% ethanol content at a common Reid Vapor Pressure standard of 10 pounds per square inch, according to the EPA announcement.In the same waiver letter, EPA is reissuing a waiver for federal enforcement of state-level "boutique" fuel requirements for gasoline under 40 CFR 1090.215. Both waivers share a 20-day effective window from June 10, 2026, to June 29, 2026.The EPA noted that states that have adopted fuel standards under consumer protection and/or air quality statutes may need to waive those provisions in State code to enable implementation of the Federal waiver in the States.In May, the EPA extended a waiver allowing the nationwide summer sales of E15, effective until June 9.

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Warmer Weather Outlook Ahead of EIA Storage Data

Related Articles

US-Iran Tensions Escalate as Centcom Launches 'Self-Defense' Strikes Following Helicopter Incident

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Cool Weather Forecasts

EPA Extends Waiver For Summertime National Sales of E15 Blended Gasoline

Related Articles

Commodities1d ago
US-Iran Tensions Escalate as Centcom Launches 'Self-Defense' Strikes Following Helicopter Incident

Commodities1d ago
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Cool Weather Forecasts
US natural gas futures softened further in after-hours trading on Tuesday as abundant supply and mild weather forecasts outweighed demand signals.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both eased 0.29% to $3.138 per million British thermal units."Price action remains largely rangebound, with weekly changes still limited to only a few cents across most of the curve," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said in a note.Weather expectations remain a key driver. Cooler-than-normal temperatures forecast for June 14-18 across the Midwest and eastern US are expected to curb air-conditioning demand and put pressure on prices, according to Barchart, citing Vaisala data.It also said Lower-48 natural gas demand rose to 73.2 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up 0.8 Bcf/d from the previous session and 5.8% higher over the year.The US Energy Information Administration's outlook shows a split summer demand profile, with June notably weak before demand strengthens later in the season.For June, the EIA forecasts 240 cooling degree days, down 15% over the year and 9% below the 10-year average, signaling reduced air-conditioning demand at the start of summer.Conditions then tighten into the third quarter, with CDDs rising 8% from a year earlier as hotter weather boosts cooling demand. That late-summer strength is expected to offset the soft start in June.Overall, the EIA still projects 2026 cooling demand averaging 4% above 2025 and 4% above the 10-year average, indicating firmer underlying summer consumption despite the early weakness.Daily US dry gas production was reported at 110.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, down 2 Bcf/d from the prior day but still up 2.2% over the year, BNEF data showed.The EIA expects US gas output to rise 3.3% in 2026 to 111.0 Bcf/d, with further growth in 2027 driven by Permian associated gas and Haynesville output.Despite steady demand growth, elevated production is expected to keep inventories above the five-year average and cap upside in Henry Hub prices. The EIA projects prices averaging $3.34/MMBtu in the second half of this year and $3.46/MMBtu in 2027, down sharply from prior forecasts.LNG feedgas flows to US export terminals also increased, reaching 17.9 Bcf/d, up 0.3 Bcf/d on the day and 8.7% higher over the week.

Commodities1d ago
EPA Extends Waiver For Summertime National Sales of E15 Blended Gasoline
The Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department of Energy on Tuesday extended the summertime waiver for the sales of E15 blended gasoline through June 29.The waiver regarding the requirements in 40 CFR 1090.215 allows for the production and distribution of a single national gasoline pool with 9% to 15% ethanol content at a common Reid Vapor Pressure standard of 10 pounds per square inch, according to the EPA announcement.In the same waiver letter, EPA is reissuing a waiver for federal enforcement of state-level "boutique" fuel requirements for gasoline under 40 CFR 1090.215. Both waivers share a 20-day effective window from June 10, 2026, to June 29, 2026.The EPA noted that states that have adopted fuel standards under consumer protection and/or air quality statutes may need to waive those provisions in State code to enable implementation of the Federal waiver in the States.In May, the EPA extended a waiver allowing the nationwide summer sales of E15, effective until June 9.