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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop on Revised Forecasts

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US natural gas futures fell in midday trading Friday after updated weather models reduced projected cooling demand for early September.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and continuous contract were both down 1.48% at $2.871 per million British thermal units.

Gelber & Associates said the latest forecast revision removed nearly 7 billion cubic feet of demand from the next two weeks, with the largest cooling-related losses concentrated toward the end of the outlook.

However, some late-summer weather is still providing price support, with high- to very-high demand expected over the next two weeks, the Wall Street Journal said, citing NatGasWeather.com.

The forecaster said Thursday that the southern two-thirds of the US would remain hot to very hot, with some highs reaching 90 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit, particularly in the Southwest.

The northern US, however, is expected to see highs in the 70s and 80s degrees Fahrenheit, and national demand is forecast to remain high over the next seven days.

Traders were keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Dolly, but Aegis Hedging said it poses little to no risk to the US natural gas market, and most weather models limited the storm's intensity. However, a few forecasts call for it to reach at least Category 1 hurricane strength.

On the supply side, US natural gas production was pegged at a strong 112 Bcf per day Friday, while Canadian imports were flowing at 5.1 Bcf/d, Gelber & Associates said.

The US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday a net weekly injection of 15 Bcf into storage for the week ended Aug. 21, bringing total working gas inventories to 3,184 Bcf. That was 167 Bcf, or 6%, above the five-year average for the period and 30 Bcf, or 1%, below year-ago levels.

The storage build was below market expectations, which generally called for a 19 Bcf injection. It also trailed the 18 Bcf injection recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 33 Bcf for the period.

On the export side, lower-48 feedgas demand was steady at around 19.3 Bcf/d Friday, Aegis Hedging said. Freeport LNG nominations remained high for a second consecutive day as maintenance work apparently wraps up.

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US Natural Gas Update: Prices Move Up on Hotter September Forecasts

US natural gas prices backed off earlier highs in after-hours trading Thursday but stayed in positive territory as forecasts for hotter weather pointed to potentially stronger demand from power generators to fuel increased air-conditioning use and a smaller-than-expected inventory build.The front-month October Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose by 1.08% to $2.905 per million British thermal units.The September 2026 NYMEX contract expired Thursday afternoon at $2.907/MMBtu, its highest daily settlement since moving to the front of the curve last month, the Energy Buyers' Guide said. The settlement marked the highest September expiration since 2022 and the first contract since March to expire at a higher price than the corresponding 2025 contract, it said.The October and continuous contracts were supported by forecasts for record-high temperatures across the Southwest through the weekend and by Commodity Weather Group forecasts calling for above-average temperatures across nearly the entire US from Sept. 1-10, Barchart said.Criterion also said the Lower 48 weather outlook had shifted warmer, with temperatures rising 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit over the forecast period. The largest upward revisions were concentrated in the 11-15-day period, particularly across the Midwest, adding to expectations for stronger late-summer cooling demand, Aegis Hedging said.Traders were also monitoring Tropical Storm Dolly, which was off the coast of northern South America and expected to reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico on Sunday.Lower-48 state gas demand was 80.1 Bcf/d on Thursday, up 11.5% from a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data. US gas-fired power demand, however, remains below 2024 levels so far this year as renewables gain market share, the Energy Information Administration said. Gas accounted for 38.4% of total power generation in the first half of 2026, down from 38.5% in the first half of 2025 and 41.3% in the first half of 2024.On the supply side, US Lower-48 dry gas production remained strong at 112.6 Bcf/d Thursday, up 3.8% year over year, according to Barchart.Prices also drew support from a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build. US natural gas inventories rose by 15 Bcf in the week ended Aug. 21, versus expectations as high as 27 Bcf and well below the five-year average build of 33 Bcf for the week.EIA projected US natural gas inventories would reach 3,985 Bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average. Inventories are currently 6.7% above their five-year seasonal average, underscoring supply strength.Estimated LNG feedgas flows were 19.5 Bcf/d Thursday, up 11.6% from a week earlier, according to BNEF. Freeport LNG accounted for much of the increase in feedgas demand as maintenance work appeared to be winding down. The facility nominated 2.1 Bcf/d Thursday morning, lifting total Lower-48 feedgas demand to 19.4 Bcf/d, Aegis said.LNG production declined last week as lower output at the Corpus Christi export terminal more than offset gains at several other facilities, UBS strategists said Wednesday. Weekly production at Corpus Christi fell to 2,720 MMcf/d from 3,355 MMcf/d a week earlier and 3,147 MMcf/d a month earlier. UBS said.Total LNG production for the week averaged 15,740 million cubic feet per day during the week, down from 16,142 MMcf/d a week earlier but slightly above the 15,693 MMcf/d recorded a month earlier, UBS analysts said.

Commodities

US Power Update: Power Markets Mostly Higher as Natural Gas Leads Generation Mix

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Commodities

Thailand LNG Demand Forecast Raised as Stronger Power Use Tightens Gas Balance, Kpler Says

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