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US Natural Gas Prices Log Weekly Slide as Soft Demand, Lower LNG Feedgas Flows Weigh on Market

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US natural gas prices ended another week lower despite a smaller-than-expected storage injection, as weaker demand and reduced liquefied natural gas feedgas flows pressured the market.

In the futures market, the Nymex front-month contract closed the week at $2.792 per million British thermal unit, down from $2.833/MMBtu on July 24.

Natural gas spot prices fell $0.39/MMBtu to $2.56/MMBtu during the week ended July 29, from $2.95/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.

Amid warmer-than-average temperatures that persisted across most of the country, total natural gas demand rose slightly by 0.3 billion cubic feet per day, or less than 1%, driven by a 0.3 Bcf/d increase in exports to Mexico, while gas-fired power burn declined by 0.4 Bcf/d.

Prices dropped across most regional hubs during the week, ranging from a $0.79/MMBtu decrease at the Waha Hub to $0.01/MMBtu at PG&E Citygate.

Even Texas, which experienced a heat dome and record-breaking electricity demand during the week, saw prices dip to $1.70/MMBtu on Wednesday, as solar generation across the region set multiple daily and hourly records throughout the past week.

Low average LNG export feedgas flows, at 17.2 Bcf/d, also weighed on demand during this period, compared to the record monthly high of 18.8 Bcf/d in April.

This is primarily due to the Freeport LNG in Texas, a major facility, undergoing scheduled maintenance starting July 10 and set to last until August.

The net injection into storage for the week ended July 24 was 28 Bcf, down from last week's 32 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,084 Bcf, according to EIA data.

Storage injections were significantly below forecasts, which had expected a net build of 37 Bcf. They were also below the prior year's net injection of 44 Bcf, but were ahead of the five-year average for this period at 26 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com.

Regional changes in storage were mixed, with only two regions reporting a net injection, the East and the Midwest, both seeing a net build of 23 Bcf.

Meanwhile, the Mountain and Pacific regions reported a withdrawal of 2 Bcf and 9 Bcf, respectively, for the week, followed by South Central, which also reported a 9 Bcf draw.

At 3,084 Bcf, total US working gas in storage was 32 Bcf, or 1% below the same period last year, but 185 Bcf, or 6% above the five-year average for this period.

According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, the markets have largely shrugged off the warmer prevailing temperatures, as the demand gets offset by "strong production and reduced LNG feedgas flows helping to keep prices under pressure."

Weather forecasts remained bearish, with above-normal temperatures expected to blanket most of the country from Aug. 7 through Aug. 13, according to the National Weather Service, keeping space-cooling demand and gas-fired power burn elevated.

A total of 35 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, up one from the prior week, with a total combined capacity of 135 Bcf, up 9 Bcf from last week.

The US gas rig count remained unchanged at 127 in the week ending July 31, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 124 gas rigs in operation in the US a year earlier.

In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $20.17/MMBtu for the week ended July 29, $0.54/MMBtu higher than the previous week.

Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $21.60/MMBtu, about $0.55/MMBtu above the prior week.

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