China's seaborne LPG imports from North America rose to more than 70% of total imports in May 2026, up from below 20% in mid-2025, as disruptions to Middle Eastern supply pushed Chinese buyers toward US cargoes, Vortexa analyst Zhuoyi Liu said in a note on Friday.
Supply from the Middle East has come under pressure from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, while El Nino-related water-conservation measures have constrained traffic through the Panama Canal.
A laden VLGC voyage from Houston to Ningbo takes about 29 days via Panama at 14.5 knots, compared with 44 days via the Cape, Vortexa data showed. The difference means cargoes purchased in the same week can arrive in China more than two weeks apart.
US LPG arrivals reached about 630,000 barrels per day in July and 530,000 b/d in August, exceeding comparable 2023 levels, while September arrivals are forecast at about 410,000 b/d as Cape diversions delay deliveries. US-China LPG trade has returned to pre-2025 trade-war levels, supported by reduced Middle Eastern supply and greater use of bonded storage and processing-trade regimes.
Panama routing is showing signs of recovery, potentially easing delivery times. Neopanamax auction prices fell to about $750,000 on Sept. 17 from more than $3 million in late August, while the canal authority postponed a planned Oct. 1 draft restriction.