The US Energy Information Administration expects ample natural gas supplies, record electricity consumption and declining coal output to shape US energy markets through 2027, according to its September Short-Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday.
US working natural gas inventories should reach 3,969 billion cubic feet on Oct. 31, 2026, 5% above the five-year average and 1% above October 2025 levels.
Regional inventories will enter the November-March withdrawal season at varying levels, with the Mountain region 21% above its five-year average, followed by the Pacific at 10%, Midwest at 6%, and South Central at 4%.
East-region inventories should sit near the five-year average, after starting the injection season 11% below that benchmark following heavy winter withdrawals due to colder-than-normal weather.
Slower regional production growth has limited East inventory gains, even as Appalachian natural gas output remains near record highs and grows more slowly than production in other regions.
US marketed natural gas production should increase by 4.5 Bcf per day in 2026 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2027, with the Permian and Haynesville regions contributing more than 70% of the growth.
Permian output should rise 1.7 Bcf/d in 2026 and 2.2 Bcf/d in 2027, as higher natural gas-to-oil ratios and new pipeline capacity support production growth.
The Permian's natural gas-to-oil ratio averaged nearly 4,200 cubic feet per barrel in 2025, 15% above 2021, while Energy Transfer's (ET) Hugh Brinson pipeline began interstate shipments in June.
Haynesville production should increase 1.4 Bcf/d in 2026 and 1.3 Bcf/d in 2027, while Appalachian output should rise about 0.6 Bcf/d and 0.3 Bcf/d, respectively.
EIA forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will ease to $3.43 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $3.28/MMBtu in 2027, down from $3.53/MMBtu in 2025, as robust production growth outpaces rising demand.
The US should see record electricity consumption as data centers and manufacturing drive demand, with sales expected to increase nearly 2% to 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 and another almost 2% to 4,211 billion kWh in 2027.
Commercial electricity sales should grow 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, accounting for 63% and 56% of annual sales growth, while industrial sales should rise 1.6% and 2.6%.
Despite Texas pausing new data-center grid connections for a regulatory audit, the West South Central region should generate nearly 20% of nationwide sales growth in 2026 and nearly 40% in 2027.
EIA forecasts natural gas generation to increase 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, while coal generation is expected to decline 8% and 6%, respectively.
Solar generation should climb 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, while wind generation should increase 7% and 5%, respectively, as new utility-scale capacity expands.
The PJM interconnection should account for nearly 45% of US generation growth, with natural gas leading in 2026 and natural gas, coal, and wind supporting gains in 2027.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas should add 18 billion kWh of solar generation in 2026 and 20 billion kWh in 2027, while Midcontinent Independent System Operator should add 13 billion kWh and 11 billion kWh, respectively.
US coal production should decline to 516 million short tons in 2026 from 528 MMst in 2025, then fall to 497 MMst in 2027 as power-sector demand weakens.
The Western region, which supplies about half of US coal, should cut output by 4% in 2026 and another 5% in 2027, reaching 260 MMst.
Appalachian coal production should remain relatively flat in 2026 before declining about 2% in 2027, while Interior output should hold near 2025 levels in 2026 before falling about 5% to 79 MMst in 2027.
Although coal exports should increase from 2025 levels, domestic power-sector demand should fall 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027 as natural gas and renewable generation expand in the Northwest and MISO regions.
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