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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop on Abundant Supplies and Late-Summer Cooling

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US natural gas prices remained down in after-hours trading Tuesday as ample supplies and expectations for cooler weather later this month outweighed bullish near-term forecasts for heat across much of the country.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each fell 2.35% to $2.905 per million British thermal units.

Above-average inventories and strong US production pressured prices despite near-term forecasts of hotter weather. Commodity Weather Group said forecasts had shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across the US South through Sept. 17. However, its 11-15 day outlook calls for noticeably cooler conditions in the second half of September. Later-month forecasts caused prices to drop as low as $2.863/MMBtu earlier in the day.

Natural gas demand remained elevated through early September. Barchart, citing BNEF data, said Lower-48 gas demand was 76.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, up 12.3% from a year earlier. Celsius Energy said average daily powerburn for the week ended Sept. 7 was 45.4 Bcf/d, up 3.8 Bcf/d from the same week last year. However, powerburn fell to 41.2 Bcf/d on Sept. 7, Celsius said.

Strong demand from LNG export facilities provided some support. BNEF data showed LNG feedgas flows were near capacity at 19.8 Bcf/d on Tuesday, up 1.9 Bcf/d from the previous week.

But planned maintenance is expected to curb LNG feedgas demand in September and October. Natural Gas Intelligence reported that annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland could reduce feedgas demand from Appalachia by about 850 MMcf/d for up to three weeks beginning Sept. 19.

Strong production also weighed on the market. US output was estimated at 112.5 Bcf/d on Tuesday, while Canadian imports fell to 4.6 Bcf/d, according to Gelber & Associates, leaving the overall supply picture somewhat tighter than the previous week.

But ample inventories more than offset the modest supply tightening. US natural gas stocks stood at 3,214 Bcf, 160 Bcf, or 5.2% above the five-year average, according to the latest weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration.

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