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US Dollar Rises Early Thursday Ahead of Barkin, Jobless Claims, Current Account

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The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Thursday ahead of an appearance by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 8:00 am ET, and weekly jobless claims data and current account data for Q2, both at 8:30 am ET.

New home sales data for August are due to be released at 10:00 am ET, followed by the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing reading for September at 11:00 am ET.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Thursday:

EUR/USD fell to 1.1374 from 1.1385 at the Wednesday US close and 1.1420 at the same time Wednesday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Thursday's schedule. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Oct. 29.

GBP/USD fell to 1.3225 from 1.3242 at the Wednesday US close and 1.3296 at the same time Wednesday morning. UK car registrations declined in August, though the year-over-year rate accelerated, while UK retail sector activity declined further in September, data released earlier Thursday showed. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Nov. 5.

USD/JPY rose to 158.6721 from 158.3242 at the Wednesday US close and 157.9101 at the same time Wednesday morning. Preliminary Japanese manufacturing and services PMI both declined in September but remained above the breakeven point, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Oct. 30.

USD/CAD rose to 1.4115 from 1.4101 at the Wednesday US close and 1.4089 at the same time Wednesday morning. Canadian retail sales and weekly earnings for July and manufacturing sales for August are all due to be released at 8:30 am ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Oct. 28.

What else is happening in International?

International

RBA Forecast to Hike Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points in September Meeting, BofA Securities Says

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% on Sept. 29, with the decision likely to be unanimous, BofA Securities said in a note on Wednesday.If the August consumer price index data leads the firm to revise its September quarter trimmed mean inflation forecast to 1% quarter-over-quarter, it will then forecast a further 25 basis points cash rate hike in November.The central bank's communication is likely to emphasize that inflation is too high with upside risks, the labor market remains tight, and growth is resilient.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand New Residential Mortgage Lending Falls in August

Total new residential mortgage lending in New Zealand fell to NZ$7.19 billion in August from NZ$7.85 billion in July, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released on Thursday.Residential mortgage lending to first home buyers fell to NZ$1.48 billion in August from NZ$1.58 billion in the previous month. Lending to other owner-occupiers decreased to NZ$4.23 billion from NZ$4.68 billion.Residential mortgage lending to investors fell to NZ$1.4 billion from NZ$1.48 billion, while that for business purposes decreased to NZ$84 million from NZ$109 million.Total new residential lending at a loan-to-valuation ratio above 80% came in at NZ$1.2 billion in August for all borrower types, down from NZ$1.26 billion in July.Residential mortgage lending, where the loan-to-valuation ratio is equal to or below 80%, was NZ$5.99 billion for all borrower types, down from NZ$6.59 billion in the previous month.

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International

ANZ Raises New Zealand Farmgate Milk Price Forecast to NZ$9.80 Per kgMS for 2026/27

ANZ revised its farmgate milk price forecast for the 2026/27 season up to NZ$9.80 per kilogram of milk solids from NZ$9.20, with rising oil prices simultaneously supporting milk powder prices while pushing the New Zealand dollar lower, according to a Thursday report by the bank.The bank said potential escalation or resolution of the Middle East conflict remains the key risk to the forecast, given the strong correlation between milk powder and oil prices and the likelihood that oil price volatility will persist.ANZ noted that Fonterra's (ASX:FCG) 2025/26 payout has been finalized at NZ$9.69 per kilogram of milk solids, with farmers and shareholders earning a combined NZ$12.42 per kilogram of milk solids for the year once dividends and the tax-free capital return from the sale of the co-operative's consumer business are included.

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