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US Biofuels Update: USDA's Monthly Data Report Pressures Soybean, Soybean Oil Futures

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Thursday, with the US Department of Agriculture's monthly data and weak weekly export sales pressuring the soybean market.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 0.71% lower at $11.15 per bushel, and the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 1.17% lower at 74.45 cents per pound.

The Nymex July ethanol futures contract settled 0.79% lower on Wednesday at $1.90 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said the lower soybean market was also pressured by a turn lower in energy markets, which in turn pressured soybean oil off daily highs and snapped a three-day higher streak in that market.

"Energy markets turned lower after President Trump canceled a planned third day of strikes against Iran, stating that the Iranian leadership had approved the latest negotiations and efforts for a lasting peace deal," Montgomery said in a daily note.

He added that the USDA kept with its recent theme of shuffling US soybean demand in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, cutting another 20 million bushels from export demand, despite commitments now running ahead of their forecast pace.

He said that the USDA moved that demand to the crush program, which is now expected to total a record 2.650 billion bushels for the 2025-26 season.

Ending stocks were unchanged, and the new crop 2026-27 balance sheet was unchanged. USDA will await data from its June acreage survey to alter next year's crop outlook."

In the June WASDE report on Thursday, USDA estimated 310 mb of US ending soybean stocks for 2026-27, unchanged from May and based on a 4.435 bb crop. US ending soybean stocks for 2025-26 were unchanged at 340 mb, with USDA again reducing export demand but increasing crush demand.

USDA projected 124.88 million metric tons of global soybean ending stocks in 2026-27, down less than 1% from 2025-26. USDA slightly increased its estimate of world soybean stocks for 2025-26 from 125.13 mmt to 125.52 mmt, very close to expectations.

Ethanol makers will use 5.6 billion bushels of corn in the 2026-2027 marketing year that started on Sept. 1, the USDA estimated in its report. That's unchanged from the May outlook for 5.6 billion bushels.

Total US corn use for 2026/27 is forecast at 16.25 billion bushels. That's equal to last month's outlook.

Biodiesel makers will use 17.8 billion pounds of soybean oil in the 2026-2027 marketing year, which began October 1. That's unchanged from the May outlook, and higher than the 14.6 billion pounds used in the 2025/2026 marketing year.

The USDA estimated US soybean oil 2026/2027 ending stocks at 1.88 billion pounds, down from 1.90 billion in May.

On Thursday, the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending June 4, 2026, USDA reported an increase of 7.8 million bushels or 211,300 mt of soybean export sales in 2025-26 and an increase of 5.2 mb or 141,500 mt for 2026-27.

Last week's export shipments of 15.1 mb were below the 15.8 mb needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate of 1.530 bb in 2025-26.

Soybean export commitments now total 1.476 bb in 2025-26 and are down 17% from a year ago. That is ahead of USDA's estimated pace, even as its estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks is 16% larger than the previous five-year average.

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