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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Market's Gains Limited By Wet August Crop Weather

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Biofuel feedstock futures closed slightly higher on Thursday, recapturing losses from the previous session.

The Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures contract closed 0.26% higher at $11.77 3/4 per bushel, while the CBOT September soybean oil futures contract settled 0.03% higher at 67.74 cents per pound.

The Nymex September ethanol futures contract settled 0.90% lower on Wednesday at $1.93 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said that a wet forecast across the US grain belt through mid-August is keeping a firm lid on bullish momentum.

"The soybean market overcame early lows in a similar trade to Wednesday but managed to turn higher by the close. Upside momentum was limited ahead of the August rainfall outlook and what remains the possibility for record-level US soybean production in 2026," Montgomery said.

On Thursday, China bought more soybeans. US Department of Agriculture reported sales of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year.

For the week ending July 30, 2026, USDA reported an increase of 1.2 million bushels, or 32,200 mt, of soybean export sales in 2025-26 and an increase of 33.2 mb, or 903,900 mt, for 2026-27.

Last week's export shipments of 12.7 mb were below the 16.4 mb needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate of 1.520 billion bushels in 2025-26. Soybean export commitments now total 1.533 bb in 2025-26 and are down 19% from a year ago.

That is ahead of USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of US ending soybean stocks is 13% larger than the previous five-year average.

Meanwhile, the Senate failed to pass a marked-up Farm Bill on Thursday that included nationwide, year-round sales of E15 gasoline.

The committee working on the bill will go into recess until September. Another attempt to pass the Farm Bill out of committee will take place then.

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