FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Nearly Flat as Heat Forecast Counters Supply Outlook

By

US natural gas futures remained essentially flat in after-hours trade on Wednesday as forecasts for hotter weather across much of the country fueled expectations for stronger cooling demand, although any potential gains were capped by prospects for another larger-than-average weekly storage build.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and continuous contract both lost 0.45% to trade at $2.670 per million British thermal units.

The Commodity Weather Group said forecast models turned warmer, with above-normal temperatures expected to persist across the western US through Aug. 14. The hotter outlook is expected to lift electricity demand for air conditioning, supporting natural gas consumption by power generators.

However, the market remained cautious ahead of Thursday's weekly storage report from the US Energy Information Administration. Various analysts' estimates range between a 27 and a 30 billion cubic foot inventory build for the week ended July 31, all exceeding the five-year average build of 23 Bcf for the period.

Natural gas prices also continued to face pressure from Tuesday's announcement by Energy Transfer that the Hugh Brinson pipeline is on track to resume its full transportation capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d by Sept. 1. The expanded capacity will allow additional natural gas to move from the Permian Basin to the Henry Hub benchmark in Erath, Louisiana, further increasing already ample domestic supply.

Barchart, citing BNEF data, said lower-48 US dry gas production averaged 111.4 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 2.6% from a year earlier. Gas demand across the lower 48 states averaged 81.4 Bcf/d, an 8.4% increase from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, estimated net flows to US LNG export terminals were 18.2 Bcf/d, up 0.3% from the previous week but still below capacity due to weaker liquefaction demand from Freeport LNG, which is undergoing maintenance work expected to wrap up at month-end.

Related Articles

Commodities

US Crude Oil Inventories Rise, API Says

Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories increased by 2.69 million barrels in the week ended July 31, following a 3.3-mmbbl draw the previous week, and compared with analysts' estimate of a 2-mmbbl decline, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Commodities

Archrock Q2 Highlights Reaffirmed 2026 Growth Capex, Multiyear Investment Plan

Archrock (AROC) reported Q2 earnings Tuesday, reaffirming its 2026 growth capital spending outlook and introducing a multiyear expansion plan as strong demand for natural gas compression services supported its long-term outlook.Contract compression fleet utilization remained high.Total operating horsepower at June 30 was 4.516 million hp, down from 4.651 million hp a year earlier, while average operating horsepower during the quarter increased to 4.514 million hp from 4.467 million hp.Total available horsepower declined to 4.784 million hp from 4.843 million hp, and utilization was 94.4%, compared with 96% a year earlier.Archrock signed a long-term agreement with an existing strategic customer covering about 665,000 hp of compression equipment. The contract includes an eight-year base term with a two-year extension option, according to the company.The company reaffirmed 2026 growth capital expenditures of $250 million to $275 million and introduced cumulative growth capital investment of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion for 2027 through 2030 to expand its compression fleet."The compression market outlook remains highly constructive, driven by durable natural gas demand and a structurally tight compression market continuing to support our expectations for robust long-term growth," said Brad Childers, Archrock's president and chief executive officer.

$AROC
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices fall on Milder Weather Forecasts, Ample Supply

US natural gas futures traded near the bottom of the session range in late Tuesday trading as a milder weather outlook and expectations of even stronger supply outweighed support from near-term cooling demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both fell 3.31% to $2.689 per million British thermal units.According to Energy Buyers Guide, the latest forecast revisions turned milder after an expected period of intense heat this weekend and into early next week, which is still projected to support elevated cooling demand. However, forecasts for the Midwest and East moderated considerably beyond that period, reducing expectations for sustained heat through the middle of August and weighing most heavily on nearby futures contracts.Additional pressure came from supply-side developments. Barchart said Energy Transfer announced that the Hugh Brinson Pipeline is expected to operate at its full transportation capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d by Sept. 1, allowing more natural gas to move from the Permian Basin to the Henry Hub pricing point in Erath, Louisiana. The expanded capacity is expected to increase domestic gas supplies.The accelerated startup of the Hugh Brinson Pipeline marks a significant shift for West Texas natural gas markets, Natural Gas Intelligence said. The additional takeaway capacity could help relieve trapped Permian gas supplies that have kept Waha benchmark prices below zero for much of this year.Gelber & Associates said US dry gas production has eased to a still strong 110.5 Bcf/d, while Canadian imports have held near a two-week low of 4.8 Bcf/d.Demand rose by 2 Bcf/d on hot weather in the middle of the country to 80.2 Bcf/d, Barchart said, citing BNEF data. Celsius Energy said power demand was pegged around 44.8 Bcf/d on Aug. 2.LNG feedgas demand has remained steady at around 18.4 Bcf/d, below capacity due to maintenance work at the Freeport LNG terminal expected to be completed around the end of this month.