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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex Surges on Fear of Falling US Yield Estimates

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed higher on Friday, with traders appearing to be pricing in increased chances of reductions to yield forecasts in future US Department of Agriculture reports.

The Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures contract closed 1.97% higher at $12.16 per bushel, while the CBOT September soybean oil futures contract settled 2.88% higher at 71.44 cents per pound.

The Nymex September ethanol futures contract settled 2.03% higher on Friday at $2.01 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said the soybean market was supported by another purchase of US soybeans from China.

"The soybean market soared on Monday, with November futures higher in three of the past four sessions and pushing through the $12.00 mark with little second thought. Rainfall through August thus far has been heavy across the heart of the US soy belt, but perhaps excessive in some instances in the east," Montgomery said.

On Monday, the USDA's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean inspections totaled 9.9 million bushels for the week ending Aug. 13. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.471 billion bushels, down 18% from the previous year.

USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.520 bb in 2025-26, down 20% from the previous year. Soybean inspections are running ahead of USDA's estimated pace at a time when USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 13% larger than the previous five-year average.

Separately, the National Oilseeds Producers Association reported that US soybean crush in July totaled 216.65 million bushels, up 11% year-over-year but below trade estimates.

Soyoil stocks totaled 1.36 billion pounds, down 1% year-over-year and below trade estimates.

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