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US Natural Gas Prices Rise After 6-Week Slide Despite Bearish Inventory Build

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After six consecutive weeks in the red, US natural gas prices finally caught a break and ended the week up, despite the higher-than-expected gas injection into storage.

In the futures market, the Nymex front-month contract ended the week at $2.71 per million British thermal units on Friday, up from $2.67/MMBtu on Aug. 7.

Natural gas spot prices increased to $2.82/MMBtu on Wednesday, up $0.22/MMBtu, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Thursday.

This comes amid warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout the week, with July being reported as the hottest month on record. Total gas demand surged 3.9 billion cubic feet per day, or 5%, driven by a 3.4 Bcf/d, or 8%, increase in power sector demand, according to S&P Global Energy.

Meanwhile, gas output remained broadly unchanged, averaging 116.7 Bcf/d, along with net imports from Canada at 5.7 Bcf/d.

US LNG feedgas flows averaged around 17.0 Bcf/d during the second week of August, which is below the Summer peak of 19 Bcf/d in April, according to data from Gas Processing News.

The net injection into storage for the week ended Aug. 7 was 36 Bcf, up from last week's 33 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,153 Bcf, according to weekly EIA inventory data.

Storage injections were above forecasts, which had expected a net build of 31 Bcf, and the five-year average for this period, at 33 Bcf, but were below the prior year's net injection of 49 Bcf during the same week, according to data compiled by Investing.com.

All regions barring the Pacific reported a net injection for the week ended Aug. 7, which reported a withdrawal of 4 Bcf.

The Midwest and East regions reported the highest net injections of 20 Bcf and 15 Bcf, respectively, followed by the South Central and Mountains regions at 3 Bcf and 2 Bcf, respectively.

At 3,153 Bcf, total US working gas in storage was 25 Bcf, or 1% below the same period last year, but 198 Bcf, or 7% above the five-year average for this period.

After several days of milder temperatures, weather forecasts turned bullish over the week, with above-normal temperatures expected to blanket almost the whole of the country, barring parts of the Northeast, from Aug. 21 through Aug. 27, according ot the National Weather Service.

According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, lingering heat across Texas and the Southeast continued to support elevated power-sector demand, while "strong production and healthy inventories" remained significant headwinds as the market approached the end of the peak summer demand season.

The analysts also noted that storage growth had outpaced the seasonal benchmark for "four consecutive weeks and seven of the past eight" weeks, leading to a tidy surplus in storage.

A total of 36 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, up five from the prior week, with a total combined capacity of 134 Bcf, up 15 Bcf from last week.

Meanwhile, the US gas rig count was up by four from 124 the previous week to 128 in the week ending Aug. 14, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 122 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.

The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, increased by eight to 812 from 804 the previous week.

In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $19.75/MMBtu for the week ended Aug. 12, $0.61/MMBtu above the prior week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $21.19/MMBtu, about $0.04/MMBtu below the prior week.

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