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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex Drops on Higher Yield Prospects

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Monday, with soybeans dropping double-digits on higher yield estimates for this year's US crop.

The Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures contract closed 1.23% lower at $12.24 1/4 per bushel, while the CBOT September soybean oil futures contract settled 3.20% lower at 67.13 cents per pound.

The Nymex October ethanol futures contract settled 2.17% higher on Friday at $2.12 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said soybean futures fell by double digits as the Pro Farmer crop tour estimated a record-large 53.3 bushels per acre yield based on last week's pod counts.

The Pro Farmer tour has been roughly 50/50 over the past decade in overestimating or underestimating soybean yield relative to the US Department of Agriculture's final number, and it hit the nail directly on the head last year, Montgomery said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced increased enforcement of sanctions against Iran, including against countries that trade with Iran.

"This likely was partly responsible for the losses in soybeans and soybean oil," Montgomery said.

On Monday, the USDA's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean bookings totaled 15.5 million bushels for the week ending Aug. 20.

Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.487 billion bushels, down 18% from the previous year. USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.520 bb in 2025-26, down 20% from the previous year.

Soybean inspections are running ahead of USDA's estimated pace at a time when USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 13% larger than the previous five-year average.

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