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Update: US Equity Indexes Rise as Cooling Inflation Eases Interest-Rate Pressure on Tech While IBM Sell-Off Restrains Dow

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(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes closed higher on Tuesday after the steepest slide in inflation in more than six years helped lift the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, while a sharp sell-off in IBM (IBM) anchored the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.9% to 26,107.01, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.4% to 7,543.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by less than 0.1% to 52,508.27.

Interest-rate-sensitive sectors, technology and communication services, led gainers in a broad-based rally. Healthcare was the worst performer. IBM sank 25%, the most on the Dow and the S&P 500, after Q2 guidance missed expectations.

Looking at gains from the top 20 companies with market capitalizations exceeding $200 billion, half were from the semiconductor industry, according to data compiled by Finviz. The top gainer was SK Hynix, up 27%, following its Nasdaq debut last Friday.

The consumer price index fell 0.4% month-over-month in June, the steepest drop since April 2020, compared with forecasts for a 0.1% drop in a Bloomberg-compiled survey and a 0.5% gain in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, held steady, compared with the 0.2% growth estimate, in line with May's growth.

The year-over-year rates for overall and core CPI slowed to 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively, from 4.2% and 2.9%. Core services, excluding housing, also known as the super core, saw the biggest sequential slide since May 2020, a Jefferies note said.

The probability of the Federal Reserve leaving its policy unchanged in July soared to 83% from 58% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The likelihood of the pause continuing over September, October, and December surged.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump withdrew his proposal to charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to his social media post on Tuesday. "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States."

US Central Command will restart its naval blockade of Iranian ports at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent rose 2.2% to $85.09 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate was up 1.9% to $79.59 a barrel, albeit both crude types were off session highs.

"Resumption of tension in the Strait of Hormuz risks a reversal, but this month's [inflation] data is a step in the right direction for the Fed," Jefferies Chief US Economist said in a note.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 3.7 basis points to 4.58% and the two-year lower 7.4 basis points to 4.19%.

Taking into account the weighting differences between the CPI and personal consumption expenditures baskets, the headline PCE, which is due out in a couple of weeks, is tracking a 0.3% decline month-over-month, according to a Scotiabank note. Core PCE is tracking similarly to the flat core CPI reading.

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Update: US Equity Indexes Slump, Crude Oil Soars as Trump Plans to Reinstate Iran Blockade, Impose 20% Toll on Hormuz Cargo

(Updates with index/price moves, analyst comments, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell as President Donald Trump's plan to reinstate a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while proposing a toll for providing "safety and security" to cargo crossings in the chokepoint, triggered a rally in crude oil prices.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6% to 25,873.18, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3% to 52,498.64 and the S&P 500 lower by 0.8% to 7,515.34 on Monday.Technology led decliners, down 2.1% while energy topped advancers with a gain of 3.2%. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's second-biggest gainer, up 3.3%.The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the fear gauge, soared 14% to 17.16.The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 9.7% to $83.41 a barrel as tensions with Iran escalated when Washington and Tehran ought to be engaged in negotiations to reach a final peace agreement within the 60 days allocated for such talks as part of the June 21 interim deal. The US West Texas Intermediate soared 9.5% to $78.16 a barrel."We are reinstating the IRANIAN BLOCKADE," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday, following a weekend of attacks on Iran. US Central Command said it will officially resume its naval blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, CNN reported."The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,'" Trump said. The US "will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World," he added.On Sunday, the US Central Command said it completed a new wave of strikes against Tehran at multiple locations, after conducting attacks a day earlier in response to the country targeting another commercial ship transiting through the strait. Iran responded by targeting US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, according to local state media. Trump said the US plans to carry out additional military strikes against Iran, CNN reported."Fresh strikes by the US and Iran renewed concerns about the safe passage of oil and other key commodities through the narrow waterway," Saxo Bank said in a note. "The hostilities also risk derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, according to the [International Energy Agency], while further reducing the prospects for a diplomatic resolution."A further rise in oil prices, sustained above $80 a barrel, would create headwinds for equities, according to a note from DA Davidson.The two-year US government bond yield stood at around 4.28% on Monday, its highest in 18 months, and up from 4.06% when the Washington-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June, the research note said. Long-term interest rates have also moved higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.63%, up from 4.43% at the MoU announcement.US Treasury yields appear to reflect more caution on geopolitical risk and oil prices, the research note said. "The higher rates are tied to inflation and Federal Reserve Bank expectations."In precious metal markets, gold futures slumped 2.6% to $4,007.1, and silver futures sank 3.7% to $57.93 amid concerns that higher crude oil prices would prove to be inflationary.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CVX
Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Fall, Crude Oil Surges as Trump Plans to Reinstate Iran Blockade, Proposes 20% Toll on Hormuz Cargo

(Updates with index/price moves and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell after President Donald Trump said he plans to reinstate a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz while proposing a toll for cargo using the chokepoint for about a fifth of global crude oil flows, sending crude oil and Treasury yields sharply higher.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4% to 25,921.3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3% to 52,505.5 and the S&P 500 lower by 0.6% to 7,529 after midday Monday.Technology led decliners, while energy topped advancers. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's second-biggest gainer, up 2.6%.On Sunday, the US Central Command said it completed a new wave of strikes against Tehran at multiple locations, after conducting attacks a day earlier in response to the country targeting another commercial ship transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, according to local state media.Iranian ships will not be able to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, media reports cited Trump as saying on Monday. The US will act as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" and will receive reimbursement for all incurred costs "at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped," Trump said Monday on Truth Social. He said the strait is open and will remain so for all non-Iranian vessels.The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 6.5% to $80.91 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate jumped 6.4% to $75.97 a barrel."Oil prices jumped, with Brent trading near USD 80 per barrel, after the battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend," Saxo Bank said in a note. "Fresh strikes by US and Iran renewed concerns about the safe passage of oil and other key commodities through the narrow waterway.""The hostilities also risk derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, according to the IEA, while further reducing the prospects for a diplomatic resolution," the note said.US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up 4.5 basis points to 4.61% and the two-year jumped 6.1 basis points to 4.27%.In precious metal markets, gold futures slumped 2.8% to $4,003.2, and silver futures sank 3.8% to $57.88.In company news, SK Hynix (SKHY) Chief Executive Kwak Noh-Jung expects the global shortage of memory chips to persist beyond 2030 as demand driven by artificial intelligence continues to outpace supply, Bloomberg reported Friday. Shares were down 6.9% on Monday, following the company's Nasdaq debut Friday.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CVX$SKHY
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Point Lower as US Equities Decline After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV fell. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) eased 1.6%.US equity indexes fell after crude oil prices jumped with government bond yields amid reports that President Donald Trump will reinstate a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added 2.5%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) fell 2.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) shed 1.7%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 1.8%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) declined 4.9%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) fell 4.7%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) rose 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) advanced 1.1%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 1.2%.CommoditiesCrude oil gained 5.3%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) rose 5.2%. Natural gas lost 1.4%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was down 1.4%.Gold on Comex dipped 2.7%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) eased 2.7%. Silver was down 3.7%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 3.6% lower.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) added 0.6%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) rose 0.4%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was up 0.5%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) fell 0.9%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) added 0.5%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) shed 0.3%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 0.4%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) added 0.2%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) was up 0.1%. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was down 1.6%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) slipped 0.9%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 2.9%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) declined 2.7%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) dipped 0.8%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 2.2% lower.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH