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Update: OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast in June

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday forecast global oil demand growth for 2026 at 1 million barrels per day year-over-year, down from last month's assessment for growth of 1.2 mmbbl/d.

This was second consecutive downward monthly revision by OPEC for global oil demand this year. In April, OPEC had projected 2026 oil demand growth at 1.4 mmbbl/d.

For 2027, the group raised its forecast by 200,000 bbl/d compared to its May projections, with global oil demand now expected to grow by about 1.7 mmbbl/d year-over-year, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to grow by 600,000 bbl/d on average in 2026 versus 2025. Growth in 2027 is also estimated at 600,000 bbl/d over 2026 levels. Both assessments are unchanged from last month's update.

This increase in output is primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, the US, and Argentina.

Natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation are expected to grow by about 100,000 bbl/d over the year in both 2026 and 2027, averaging 8.8 mmbbl/d and 8.9 mmbbl/d, respectively.

Meanwhile, crude oil production by countries participating in the DOC averaged 33.13 mmbbl/d in May, down about 190,000 bbl/d month-over-month, OPEC said, citing data from secondary sources.

OPEC said refining margins on the US Gulf Coast continued its downward trend, with Singapore too witnessing sharp declines.

"Easing product tightness in both trading hubs pressured middle distillates and naphtha. A post-maintenance rebound in US refinery runs added to the weakness, despite strength in gasoline and residual fuel. In Singapore, margins corrected downward following the previous month's increase, amid weak steam cracking margins and stronger regional middle distillate supply," it said.

Meanwhile, margins rose in Rotterdam aided by unplanned refinery outages and renewed supply risks.

OPEC retained its assessment from last month for global economic growth at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.

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