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Update: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Rise as Inflation Cools Most in Six Years, Trump Drops Strait of Hormuz Cargo Toll Plan

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(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)

US equity indexes traded mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 gaining, as the June inflation rate fell the most in more than six years and President Donald Trump withdrew plans to impose a levy on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1% to 26,125.4, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.4% to 7,545.1 after midday Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, slipping 0.1% to 52,429.5.

Technology led gainers, while healthcare was the steepest decliner. IBM's (IBM) shares sank 25%, the steepest decline on the Dow and the S&P 500, after the tech giant issued Q2 guidance below Wall Street expectations.

The US seasonally adjusted consumer price index fell by 0.4% month-over-month in June, the steepest drop since April 2020, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decrease in a Bloomberg-compiled survey and following a 0.5% increase in May, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, held steady, compared with the 0.2% growth estimate, in line with May's growth.

The year-over-year rates for overall and core CPI slowed to 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively, from 4.2% and 2.9% in the previous month. The "super core", which is defined as core services excluding housing, saw the biggest sequential decline since May 2020, according to a note from Jefferies.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 2.9 basis points to 4.58% and the two-year lower by 5.7 basis points to 4.21%.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump withdrew his proposal to charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait, according to his social media post on Tuesday. "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States."

There will be a "FULL Blockade, but only on Ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything have to do with Iranian cargo," Trump said on Truth Social.

The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent rose 1.7% to $84.69 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.3% to $79.18 a barrel, off session highs.

"Resumption of tension in the Strait of Hormuz risks a reversal, but this month's [inflation] data is a step in the right direction for the Fed," Jefferies Chief US Economist said in a note.

The probability of the Federal Reserve leaving its policy unchanged in July soared to 83% following the inflation data, from 58% a day ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed Tuesday. The likelihood of the policy pause continuing across September, October, and December also jumped.

Further in company news, traders digested the latest round of earnings from mega-cap banks. Goldman Sachs' (GS) Q2 results topped analysts' estimates as a record performance in the global banking and markets business propelled revenue growth. Shares jumped 7.7%, the Dow's leader.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q2 results above market expectations, driven by higher investment banking fees and markets revenue. Its shares rose 1.9%, one of the Dow's top performers.

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Update: US Equity Indexes Slump, Crude Oil Soars as Trump Plans to Reinstate Iran Blockade, Impose 20% Toll on Hormuz Cargo

(Updates with index/price moves, analyst comments, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell as President Donald Trump's plan to reinstate a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while proposing a toll for providing "safety and security" to cargo crossings in the chokepoint, triggered a rally in crude oil prices.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6% to 25,873.18, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3% to 52,498.64 and the S&P 500 lower by 0.8% to 7,515.34 on Monday.Technology led decliners, down 2.1% while energy topped advancers with a gain of 3.2%. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's second-biggest gainer, up 3.3%.The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the fear gauge, soared 14% to 17.16.The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 9.7% to $83.41 a barrel as tensions with Iran escalated when Washington and Tehran ought to be engaged in negotiations to reach a final peace agreement within the 60 days allocated for such talks as part of the June 21 interim deal. The US West Texas Intermediate soared 9.5% to $78.16 a barrel."We are reinstating the IRANIAN BLOCKADE," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday, following a weekend of attacks on Iran. US Central Command said it will officially resume its naval blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, CNN reported."The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,'" Trump said. The US "will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World," he added.On Sunday, the US Central Command said it completed a new wave of strikes against Tehran at multiple locations, after conducting attacks a day earlier in response to the country targeting another commercial ship transiting through the strait. Iran responded by targeting US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, according to local state media. Trump said the US plans to carry out additional military strikes against Iran, CNN reported."Fresh strikes by the US and Iran renewed concerns about the safe passage of oil and other key commodities through the narrow waterway," Saxo Bank said in a note. "The hostilities also risk derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, according to the [International Energy Agency], while further reducing the prospects for a diplomatic resolution."A further rise in oil prices, sustained above $80 a barrel, would create headwinds for equities, according to a note from DA Davidson.The two-year US government bond yield stood at around 4.28% on Monday, its highest in 18 months, and up from 4.06% when the Washington-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June, the research note said. Long-term interest rates have also moved higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.63%, up from 4.43% at the MoU announcement.US Treasury yields appear to reflect more caution on geopolitical risk and oil prices, the research note said. "The higher rates are tied to inflation and Federal Reserve Bank expectations."In precious metal markets, gold futures slumped 2.6% to $4,007.1, and silver futures sank 3.7% to $57.93 amid concerns that higher crude oil prices would prove to be inflationary.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CVX
Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Fall, Crude Oil Surges as Trump Plans to Reinstate Iran Blockade, Proposes 20% Toll on Hormuz Cargo

(Updates with index/price moves and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell after President Donald Trump said he plans to reinstate a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz while proposing a toll for cargo using the chokepoint for about a fifth of global crude oil flows, sending crude oil and Treasury yields sharply higher.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4% to 25,921.3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3% to 52,505.5 and the S&P 500 lower by 0.6% to 7,529 after midday Monday.Technology led decliners, while energy topped advancers. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's second-biggest gainer, up 2.6%.On Sunday, the US Central Command said it completed a new wave of strikes against Tehran at multiple locations, after conducting attacks a day earlier in response to the country targeting another commercial ship transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, according to local state media.Iranian ships will not be able to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, media reports cited Trump as saying on Monday. The US will act as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" and will receive reimbursement for all incurred costs "at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped," Trump said Monday on Truth Social. He said the strait is open and will remain so for all non-Iranian vessels.The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent surged 6.5% to $80.91 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate jumped 6.4% to $75.97 a barrel."Oil prices jumped, with Brent trading near USD 80 per barrel, after the battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend," Saxo Bank said in a note. "Fresh strikes by US and Iran renewed concerns about the safe passage of oil and other key commodities through the narrow waterway.""The hostilities also risk derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, according to the IEA, while further reducing the prospects for a diplomatic resolution," the note said.US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up 4.5 basis points to 4.61% and the two-year jumped 6.1 basis points to 4.27%.In precious metal markets, gold futures slumped 2.8% to $4,003.2, and silver futures sank 3.8% to $57.88.In company news, SK Hynix (SKHY) Chief Executive Kwak Noh-Jung expects the global shortage of memory chips to persist beyond 2030 as demand driven by artificial intelligence continues to outpace supply, Bloomberg reported Friday. Shares were down 6.9% on Monday, following the company's Nasdaq debut Friday.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CVX$SKHY
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Point Lower as US Equities Decline After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV fell. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) eased 1.6%.US equity indexes fell after crude oil prices jumped with government bond yields amid reports that President Donald Trump will reinstate a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added 2.5%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) fell 2.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) shed 1.7%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 1.8%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) declined 4.9%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) fell 4.7%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) rose 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) advanced 1.1%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 1.2%.CommoditiesCrude oil gained 5.3%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) rose 5.2%. Natural gas lost 1.4%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was down 1.4%.Gold on Comex dipped 2.7%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) eased 2.7%. Silver was down 3.7%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 3.6% lower.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) added 0.6%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) rose 0.4%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was up 0.5%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) fell 0.9%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) added 0.5%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) shed 0.3%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 0.4%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) added 0.2%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) was up 0.1%. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was down 1.6%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) slipped 0.9%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 2.9%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) declined 2.7%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) dipped 0.8%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 2.2% lower.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH