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UAE Exit Cuts OPEC Share of Global Crude Output to 31%, EIA Says

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The UAE's exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced the cartel's global market share and production capacity, as producers grapple with disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.

The UAE left OPEC on May 1 after announcing the decision on April 28. The organization, founded in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, coordinates petroleum policies among member countries.

The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 as the emirate of Abu Dhabi and ranked third in crude production capacity within the group in 2025, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to the EIA.

The UAE averaged 3.4 million barrels per day of crude oil production in 2025 and maintained an effective capacity of 4.2 million b/d before the Iran conflict erupted on Feb. 28, 2026, disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the EIA said.

In 2025, OPEC pumped an estimated 28.0 million b/d of crude oil, equal to 35% of global supply. Excluding the UAE, the group's share of worldwide production would have fallen to about 31%.

Producing 9.3 million b/d and holding 11.6 million b/d of effective capacity, Saudi Arabia remained OPEC's dominant producer and most influential member in 2025, according to the EIA.

Responding to a surge in US shale production that weighed on oil prices, producers established OPEC+ in 2016. Several members later adopted voluntary output curbs beginning in April 2023, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia among the largest contributors, the EIA said.

OPEC+ members supplied about 46% of the world's crude oil in 2025. Without the UAE, that figure would have been closer to 42%, while Iran, Venezuela and Libya continued to receive exemptions from recent output agreements, the EIA said.

After the Strait of Hormuz closed, the UAE shifted exports to its 1.8 million b/d Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline and aims to double that capacity by 2027.

Saudi Arabia also redirected shipments through its 7 million b/d East-West pipeline, including 5 million b/d available for exports, reducing the volume of shut-in production in both countries, the EIA said.

Estimated crude oil production shut-ins across the seven Gulf producers increased to 11.25 million b/d in May from 8.89 million b/d in March.

Saudi Arabia recorded the largest outage in May at 3.29 million b/d, followed by Iraq at 3.19 million b/d, while Bahrain reported the smallest disruption at 160,000 b/d, according to EIA data.

The UAE experienced comparatively lower disruptions despite producing 3.6 million b/d before the Strait of Hormuz closure, with shut-ins falling to 1.1 million b/d in April before rising to 1.35 million b/d in May, the EIA added.

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