The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a second-straight session Monday on improved commodity prices, while risks stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz likely capped gains, while RBC outlined "key hidden trends that support its cautiously optimistic view of Canada's labour market recovery this year".
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 61.12 points, or 0.2%, to 34,138.88, adding to the 220 points gained Friday, even with sectors mixed. The Battery Metals Index was up 3.8%, Base Metals up 2.1% and Energy up near 1.7%. In contrast, Info Tech was down near 3.8% and Health Care down 2.1%.
On equities as an asset class compared to others, Rosenberg Research in its latest monthly 'Strategizer', said its model's tactical allocation points to the maximum risk-off tone allowed within confines of the model, favoring cash (10%) and fixed-income (50%) over equity risk (40%). "The contrarian nature of the model shined through last month with equity scores soaring, but the signal has reversed this month, with broad-based declines across equity scorecards," it added.
Rosenberg Research noted the energy sector is screening as #1 in both the United States and Canada. Its commodity model points to the asset class "remaining favorable", noting energy-related commodities are heavily weighted in the top rankings. Its gold model is "exhibiting some strength" in a fourth monthly rise, and it remains "long-term bullish'.
On economics, RBC Economics published 'The hidden resilience in Canada's labour market' in which it noted headline labor market data in Canada looks "gloomy" in 2026. But beneath that lies more encouraging details, it said, adding: "fewer permanent layoffs and stable hidden unemployment point to easing in cyclical weakness and underlying resilience".
Sectors exposed to U.S. demand are still seeing job losses, but those losses haven't spread to the broader economy, RBC said. More recently, hiring intentions among Canadian firms have picked up, though translating those plans into actual job growth will take time, it noted. "Structurally, Canada's aging population is tightening its grip on labour supply as immigration slows, and retirements accelerate," RBC added.
RBC outlined key hidden trends that support its "cautiously optimistic" view of Canada's labor market recovery this year, including that: 90% of Canadian jobs focus on domestic demand, and will be supported by firmer spending; to date, there's little signs of young job seekers giving up on their job searches en masse, despite elevated unemployment; and business hiring sentiment broadly held up even amid Middle East tension.
Meanwhile, TD Economics published 'The Hidden Food Inflation Risk from the Strait of Hormuz Disruption'. Among highlights, TD said the Strait of Hormuz disruption is "more than an energy shock", noting the closure has blocked roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade with nitrogen and phosphate supply the most exposed. Gulf-dependent fertilizer importers are being hit first, but rising prices are impacting food producers all over the world, the bank added.
North America may avoid the worst of the supply shock, but it remains exposed to global price spillovers, TD said. Existing inventories and low-farm-to-retail pass through should limit the headline CPI impact, but a persistent fertilizer shock could still add upside pressure to food inflation, it added.
Of commodities, gold was steady midafternoon Monday after the United States rejected Iran's response to its peace plan offered last week, calling the country's response unacceptable. Gold for June delivery was up $0.60 to US$4,731.30 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil rose as the war that has produced the largest-ever energy supply shock looks set to continue. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up $2.65 to settle at US$98.07 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $3.47 to US$104.76.