FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

TSX Closer: The Index Rises as Commodity Gains Offset US-Canada Trade Tensions

By

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose sharply on Tuesday as gains in base metals stocks and higher gold and oil prices outweighed concerns over escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States.

The index closed up 408.76 points, or 1.17%, to 35,369.08, with the majority of sectors closing higher. Base Metals led gainers, up 5.39%, while Telecom led decliners, down 0.31%.

In commodities, gold traded higher on Tuesday, rising for a second-straight session after finding support at the $4,000 mark despite a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen up $74.50, or 1.86%, to $4,090.40 per ounce.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Tuesday, climbing for a third straight session as fighting between Iran and the US continues to constrain Persian Gulf supply.

WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $1.68, or 2%, to settle at $84.91 per barrel, while September Brent was last seen up $1.70, or 1.9%, to $90.92.

Trade tensions also remained in focus after the United States unveiled a new 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian goods late Monday.

In response, Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated Canada's support for free and fair trade. The prime minister said the government remains committed to taking all necessary steps to build economic resilience and protect the interests of Canadian workers, farmers, businesses and families.

Carney said Tuesday that he and President Trump agreed during a morning phone call to intensify trade negotiations in the coming weeks, CTV News reported.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Tuesday said Canada vows to stand firm and defend its interests amid rising tensions with its biggest trading partner.

"Together, we'll stand united. We'll never back down. We'll never roll over," Ford wrote in a X post.

Using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, the US administration accused Canada of unfairly discriminating against American products in sectors including dairy, alcoholic beverages and autos. The affected goods will lose US-Mexico-Canada Agreement exemption eligibility, with the new tariffs set to take effect in 30 days.

The White House said that by doing so, President Trump is offsetting the burden and disadvantage on US commerce from Canada's discriminatory treatment and is leveling the playing field for crucial American exports - cars, alcohol, and dairy.

Citing an example, White House said Canada imposes certain tariffs and quotas on cars imported to Canada from the United States, but not on imports from other countries. From April 2025 through March 2026, Canadian imports of US motor vehicles decreased by approximately 22% annually, or $5.6 billion.

Corpay's rough estimates suggest that the overall increase in potential levies would amount to around $19.1 billion, equivalent to 4.6% of Canada's US exports, implying that the average tariff rate applied to Canadian goods could rise by about 2.3 percentage points.

"This would undoubtedly be painful for the affected Canadian industrial sectors, but should be substantially less damaging to the economy than initially feared," wrote Karl Schamotta, Corpay's chief market strategist, in a late Monday note.

Commerzbank said the Canadian dollar's initial reaction to Monday's White House new tariff announcement was relatively muted, but the US trade dispute will drive the Canadian dollar outlook.

"Given the multitude of threats Donald Trump has made in recent months - not all of which have been carried out - the muted reaction seems reasonable for now," wrote Commerzbank FX and Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur in the note. That said, the move introduces renewed uncertainty for the Canadian dollar, with the loss of preferential treatment for affected products under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement potentially weighing on exports and keeping trade tensions in focus for currency markets, he added.

Whereas CIBC Economics said the latest US tariff announcement is not large enough to change its outlook for the Bank of Canada. The measures affect just under 5.5% of Canada's exports to the United States and would lift the average Canada-US tariff rate by slightly more than 2.5 percentage points.

"We see this as a sector-specific development rather than a broad macroeconomic story, though it is clearly significant for the industries directly affected," wrote CIBC's Benjamin Tal in the note.

Related Articles

International

Rise in New Zealand Consumer Prices Sees Inflation Climb to Highest Level in Two Years, Westpac Says

New Zealand consumer prices increased by 1.5% in the June quarter, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 4.1%, up from 3.1% in the year to March and the highest level in two years, Westpac said in a report on Tuesday.The result was in line with Westpac's forecast, but slightly above the Reserve Bank's July forecast for 3.9% annual inflation.Much of the rise in inflation is attributed to increasing global oil prices since the start of the Middle East conflict, and while core inflation is softening, it remains above the Reserve Bank's 2% target midpoint, according to Satish Ranchhod, Westpac NZ senior economist.Oil prices have pulled back from their initial peak, but ongoing geopolitical tensions could keep them elevated for some time, with headline inflation anticipated to linger above 3% through the latter part of the year.While core inflation softening alleviates some concerns for the Reserve Bank, inflation remains high, leading to expectations of further rate hikes in September and December policy meetings, per the report.

^NZ50
International

Australian Consumer Confidence Rise as Household Purchase Sentiment Improves

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence rose 0.3 points to 75.6 in the week of July 13 to July 19, ANZ reported Tuesday.The four-week moving average rose 0.7 points to 75.4, per the report.Australian consumer confidence edged higher last week, with improved sentiment around major household purchases largely offset by "weaker confidence in personal finances and the economic outlook," according to ANZ economist Sophia Angala.The Reserve Bank of Australia may keep the cash rate unchanged in August, but renewed inflationary pressures could prompt a rate hike in November, despite expectations that rates will remain steady through the near term, Angala added.Weekly inflation expectations inched up to 5.8% from 5.7%, while the current financial condition indicator for 12 months increased 0.8 points to 66.1. The future financial conditions for the next 12 months fell to 82.5 points from 84.6.Short-term economic confidence for the next year fell 1.6 points to 67.7, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years increased to 81.4 points from 80.6.The "time to buy a major household item" subcategory rose 3.8 points to 80.3.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand's June Quarter CPI Data Provides 'Mixed Signals' on Underlying Inflation, ANZ Says

The signal on underlying inflation in New Zealand's June quarter consumer price index (CPI) data was mixed and isn't likely to budge the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) from its policy stance, with the trimmed mean and weighted median measures accelerating, but the ex-fuel and energy measure slowing, ANZ said in a note on Tuesday.New Zealand's annual consumer inflation increased by 4.1% in the June quarter, up from a 3.1% increase in the 12 months to the March quarter. Tradable inflation accelerated 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% year-over-year.The bank reiterated its forecast of 25 basis point rate hikes at the central bank's September and October meetings.The June quarter could have marked the peak in annual inflation following the oil price shock; however, oil prices are rising again, and the RBNZ is unlikely to stop worrying about potential spillovers.Gradual progress on non-tradable inflation and broadly contained core inflation is also unlikely to impact the monetary policy committee's policy assessment.The committee will be concerned about the effect of the fuel shock on inflation expectations and firms' pricing behavior. Administrative price inflation is likely to remain elevated for an extended period. However, New Zealand's economy may still have ample disinflationary spare capacity.

^NZ50