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Swiss Economic Growth Expected to Further Weaken in 2026 Over Iran Crisis

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Switzerland's below-average economic growth is anticipated to decelerate further in 2026 as the conflict in the Middle East drives up energy prices and weighs on the global economy, according to the Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles.

The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said Thursday the expert group now expects gross domestic product growth, adjusted for sporting events, to come in at 0.9% in 2026, down from its March forecast of 1%. Similarly, the 2027 GDP growth forecast is reduced to 1.6% from 1.7%.

Not adjusted for sports events, Swiss economic growth is anticipated at 1.2% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, against the previous expectations of 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively.

As for consumer prices, the inflation estimate for 2026 is increased to 0.6% from 0.4% previously, while the 2027 forecast is raised to 0.6% from 0.5%.

The expert group also lifted its unemployment rate outlook to 3.1% from 3% for 2026, and to 3% from 2.8% for 2027.

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