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Statistics Canada Says Preliminary April Wholesale Trade Rises 0.1% M/M

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Statistics Canada said on Monday that the advance results for April indicate wholesale sales -- excluding oil, oil products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain -- edged up 0.1% month over month.

The increase partly reflects higher sales in the building material and supplies subsector, noted the country's statistical agency.

This estimate was calculated based on a weighted response rate of 62.5%, while the average final response rate to the survey over the 12 preceding months was 82.3%, according to StatsCan.

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Canada's Retail Sales For March "Looked Good", But "Details Matter", says Rosenberg Research

On the surface, Canada's retail sales report for March "looked good", but "details matter", said Rosenberg Research after Friday's data release.The headline came in up 0.9% month over month, "handily beating" the consensus forecast and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate of a gain of 0.6%, noted Rosenberg Research.(StatCan's preliminary estimate for April retail sales is also a 0.6% month-over-month increase.)The rest of the retail sales report, however, was "very weak", said Rosenberg, noting for example, core retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, fell by 0.1% month over month.According to the research, the "key factor" in the upside surprise to the headline number was the 14.7% month-over-month jump in gasoline prices. That was the largest month-over-month increase in gasoline prices since May 2022, a move sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Overall, the research noted, gasoline's contribution to the monthly change in retail sales was 1.1 percentage points. Food and beverage spending made a marginal positive contribution to total spending in the month, and there were small negative contributions from building materials, motor vehicles, and general merchandise.There was more bad news in the report, said Rosenberg. In real terms, retail sales fell by 0.7% month over month, its largest decline in six months. The three largest declines in real spending in the month were building materials, general merchandise and gasoline."The significant drop in real spending on gasoline is about as clear an example of demand destruction as you will find. Canadians reacted quickly to conserve in response to the sharp increase in gasoline prices," the research said."A key takeaway is that even though Canadians did spend more in the month, there were clear signs of consumers turning more cautious in response to the increase in uncertainty from the outbreak of war in the Middle East," it added.The report points toward only limited momentum in consumer spending into Q2, according to the research. Fair warning, however, despite the news on retail sales for March, consumer activity for all of Q1 might end up looking "pretty healthy", it said, noting that on a QoQ basis, real retail sales rose at an annualized pace of +4.8% in Q1, the largest increase since 2024Q4. "This seemingly strong performance is testament to what had been signs of improving economic momentum earlier this year. It was nice while it lasted."

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Three-in-Five of Albertans Say They'd Vote in October to Stay in Canada, but Half Say The Question Is "Confusing", Finds Survey

A long-simmering "what if" has become a reality in the province of Alberta, with federalists and separatists now on a five-month clock to convince Albertans to either smother the emerging flames of a sovereignty movement or "start a legal process" for a binding referendum to "separate from Canada."Those are the options laid out in a 37-word question that the UCP provincial government, led by Premier Danielle Smith, will put to Albertans in an Oct. 19 referendum.New polling data released on Monday from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute gauging Albertans' opinions leads to three key conclusions.First, in answering the official October question, most Albertans would choose not to proceed with starting the process of a binding separation vote -- 61% versus 36%. Second, half (51%) find the question confusing.Third, if they were to answer a simpler hypothetical question -- whether to leave or stay -- support for the federalist side increases -- 67% stay versus 31% leave.The Angus Reid poll had 800 respondents.

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Scotiabank Previews This Week's GDP Data in Canada

Statistics Canada will release on Friday the gross domestic product figures for Q1 on a complete expenditure accounts basis, plus monthly GDP estimates for March, April, and any revisions to prior months, said Scotiabank.They will be backward-looking, but a round of GDP figures will help the bank understand more about the momentum into the commodities shock. Scotiabank will learn more about how much net slack there is in the Canadian economy and more about how the domestic economy is performing, and over which the Bank of Canada has more influence than GDP.GDP is estimated to have grown by roughly 2% quarter over quarter at a seasonally adjusted and annualized pace in Q1, stated the bank. The consumer is tracking solid growth.Whether that continues or not is unclear after early guidance that Q1 strength was followed by somewhat of a setback in April. When oil prices surged in anticipation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the aftermath in 2022, Canadian consumers reacted by pushing their saving rate close to zero and rebuilding it later. The saving rate, like currencies, serves as a shock absorber at least for a time.There may be a reversal of the inventory drag effect that held back Q4 GDP growth, but that might be offset by a surge in imports that serves as a leakage effect on GDP growth, it pointed out.As for March monthly GDP on an income basis, StatsCan had said toward the end of April that it was tracking 'essentially unchanged' as a rough guide. That was based upon trade-offs it loosely described as driven by gains in sectors like wholesale and transportation versus weakness in resources. There might be upside based upon the bank's tracking of available activity readings.April GDP, however, is a "total wildcard," added Scotiabank. StatsCan will release its preliminary estimate without details. It's important because it will help to inform momentum into Q2 GDP tracking.

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