According to Avery Shenfeld, Canada has told a "one-step-forward, one-step-backward story" for quarterly GDP going back to the spring of 2025, and he said we're due for a "respectable gain" in Q1 data next Friday on the heels of the decline posted in Q4. While CIBC's 1.7% forecast on quarterly annualized is a bit above consensus for 1.4%, that will be offset by a flat reading for March GDP that will signal a softer, but not negative, quarterly growth rate for Q2, Shenfeld said. CIBC sees 0.0% for March GDP versus a consensus 0.1%.
On the current account deficit, Shenfeld said it will "look a lot better" in Q2, but he added the first quarter data due out next Thursday won't pick up enough of the benefit from higher oil prices that will show up in the spring data. CIBC sees a deficit of $4.7 billion compared to a consensus deficit of $2.5 billion.
Also on the CIBC diary for next week, Nicolas Vincent, External Deputy Governor at the Bank of Canada, will deliver a speech in CIRANO, Montreal, Quebec, at 8.30am on Tuesday. Then there will be the auction of $5 billion in 10-YR CANADAS on Wednesday.
Thursday also sees the release of March Payrolls data and the BoC's Financial Stability Report and Financial System Survey, an assessment of potential risks to the stability of Canada's financial system. The Governor and Senior Deputy Governor will hold a press conference at 11am ET to discuss the contents of the Report.
Note: US markets are closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
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