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Ryanair Profit Beats Consensus in Fiscal 2026; Shares Drop as Rising Fuel Clouds Outlook

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Ryanair Profit Beats Consensus in Fiscal 2026; Shares Drop as Rising Fuel Clouds Outlook

Ryanair Holdings (RYA.IR) shares slipped 3% in early Monday trade as incoming clouds of lower fares and inflationary pressure eclipsed a 3% profit beat in fiscal 2026.

Citing a 4% increase in traffic with 10% higher fares, the Irish budget airline booked a yearly rise in profit attributable to equity holders of the parent for the 12 months ended March 31 to 2.17 billion euros from 1.61 billion euros. Before exceptionals, including a provision for a fine from the Italian Competition Authority, profit jumped 40% to 2.26 billion euros, ahead of the company-compiled consensus of 2.2 billion euros.

Total operating revenue climbed to 15.54 billion euros from 13.95 billion euros a year ago. The 11% rise was attributed to a 14% gain in scheduled revenue to 10.56 billion euros as Ryanair recovered from a 7% decline in fares in fiscal 2025. Ancillary revenue rose 6% to 4.99 billion euros.

Subject to approval at the annual general meeting, management proposed a final dividend of 0.195 euro per share, lower than 0.227 euro per share a year ago.

Given the first week of Easter was in March, the carrier expects fares for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to be lower by a mid-single-digit percentage on an annual basis. Ryanair also noted that while 80% of its fuel needs for fiscal 2027 are hedged at $67 per barrel, unhedged fuel costs have escalated due to the Middle East conflict and could lead to a mid-single-digit percentage unit cost inflation in the 12 months ending March 31, 2027.

The group also did not offer meaningful profit guidance for fiscal 2027, citing zero visibility in the second half and "significant" volatility in fuel prices and potential supply. However, it projected 4% traffic growth to 216 million passengers, aided by its fleet of 647 aircraft as of March 31, 2026.

"The final FY27 outcome remains heavily exposed to adverse external developments, [including] conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, risks to fuel supply shortages, higher for longer fuel prices on our unhedged 20%, macro-economic shocks and European ATC strikes & mismanagement," the company said. "We hope to be able to give shareholders a clearer picture on H1 pricing and fuel costs during our Q1 results release in late July."

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