Inflation Seen at 6% This Quarter, Above 2% in Long Term, Philadelphia Fed Survey Shows

US annual consumer inflation is expected to reach 6% in the ongoing quarter and remain above 2% in the long term, a poll of economists by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed Friday.

The headline consumer price index is expected to average 6% in the second quarter, according to the Fed branch's latest quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters. That's well above the 2.7% rate pegged in the previous survey, which was published in March.

In the years through 2035, the forecasters now project headline CPI at 2.40%, up from the 2.30% rate expected previously, the Friday survey showed.

Earlier this week, official data showed that consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% year over year in April, the highest print since May 2023. Energy prices rose nearly 18%, the highest since September 2022.

Energy prices have soared as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut following the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February. The strait is the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. US President Donald Trump recently rejected Iran's counteroffer to end the war, though a fragile ceasefire between the two countries appears to be holding.

Economists now expect 2026 headline CPI at 3.5%, compared with the previous forecast of 2.6%, the Philly Fed report showed Friday. Full-year core CPI -- which excludes the volatile food and energy components -- is projected at 2.9%, up from 2.6% previously.

Late last month, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, saying the Middle East conflict is fueling uncertainty about the US economic outlook.

The world's largest economy is now projected to grow 2.2% this year, slower than the previous estimate of 2.5%, according to the Philly Fed's survey of 33 economists.

"The forecasters see the risk of a contraction in real (gross domestic product) this quarter at 17.9%, down from the previous estimate of 20.9%," according to the report. "However, they have increased their probability estimates for negative growth for the following three quarters, compared with their estimates in the survey of three months ago."

Economists now forecast 2026 unemployment rate at 4.4%, down from the previously projected 4.5%, the survey showed.

Oil Rises as US-Iran Deal Uncertainty Persists Following Trump-Xi Summit

Crude oil prices rose Friday as talks between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, failed to improve the prospects of a US-Iran peace deal.Brent advanced 3.4% to $109.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 4.2% at $105.37.Trump and Xi met in Beijing this week, with trade and the Iran war key parts of the agenda.Trump told Fox News on Thursday that Xi offered to help ensure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint. China didn't publicly confirm or deny that claim."China always believes that dialogue and negotiation is the right way forward, and the use of force is a dead end," China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said in a statement Friday regarding the Iran war. "Now that the door of dialogue has been opened, it should not be shut again."Trump reportedly said China agreed to purchase more oil from the US. When asked about that, Jiakun said "China stands ready to work with all sides to ensure global energy security and keep global industrial and supply chains stable."A fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appears to be holding, though the two sides are yet to finalize a framework on a deal despite a series of talks. Trump recently rejected Iran's counteroffer to end the war."I am not gonna be much more patient," Trump told Fox News. "They should make a deal."RBC Capital Markets is skeptical of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough."There seems to be an emerging consensus that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June because the cost of continued closure will be too high," RBC said in a note emailed Friday. "We are very skeptical of a June grand reopening."Earlier in the week, the International Energy Agency projected a sharper decline in global oil demand this year than previously expected as the Middle East conflict drives up energy prices. Separately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2026.

Equities Fall, Yields Surge Intraday Amid Inflation Concerns; Oil Jumps

US benchmark equity indexes were lower intraday as Treasury yields jumped amid inflation concerns, while oil prices moved higher on the back of renewed Middle East worries.The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.8% each at 26,412.7 and 49,658.24, respectively, after midday Friday. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,448.3. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh record highs in the previous session.Barring energy, all sectors were in the red intraday Friday, led by materials' 2.5% drop.US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year rate up 13.2 basis points at 4.59% and the two-year rate rising 8.7 basis points to 4.08%."The sustained back-up in long-term yields has finally broken the preternatural serenity in equities, which saw the S&P 500 crack the 7,500 level for the first time on Thursday," BMO said in a report Friday. "A series of increasingly problematic US inflation readings for April was capped by a late-week run-up in oil prices to nearly $105, and aggravated by mounting fiscal concerns in some major economies."Recently, official data showed that US producer prices in April rose at the fastest pace in four years, while annual consumer inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three years.West Texas Intermediate crude was up 4.2% at $105.37 a barrel intraday, while Brent climbed 3.4% to $109.28.US President Donald Trump said he is losing patience with Iran, CNBC reported, citing Trump's interview to Fox News that aired late Thursday. "They should make a deal," he said, according to the report.Trump reportedly concluded his two-day visit to Beijing Friday after holding policy discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on trade, tariffs and technology, among other matters. In a pre-recorded interview with Fox News, Trump reportedly said China has agreed to purchase oil from the US.Beijing hasn't confirmed the energy purchases, according to the report.Trump said he is considering lifting sanctions on Chinese firms buying Iranian oil, CNN reported. "I'm going to make a decision over the next few days. We did talk about that," he reportedly said.In company news, Bill Ackman said his Pershing Square hedge fund has established a new position in Microsoft (MSFT), noting that the technology giant's stock "offers analogous and compelling long-term value at today's valuation."The billionaire investor has sold his long-owned investment in Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Reuters reported.Microsoft shares were up 4.4% intraday, the second-biggest gainer on the Dow. Alphabet's class A and C shares fell 0.9% each.In economic news, US industrial production rebounded more than projected in April, buoyed the manufacturing and utilities categories, Federal Reserve data showed."The winners and losers in the latest report are likely to persist over the balance of 2026," Oxford Economics said in a note. "Besides supportive fiscal policy, the (artificial intelligence) buildout will continue to lift production of computers and electronics, while an inventory restocking cycle will support new orders growth for factories."New York manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in more than four years this month amid robust new orders, the New York Fed reported.Gold was down 2.6% at $4,564.80 per troy ounce, while silver slid 9.1% to $77.58 per ounce.

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Update: AI Revenue May Jump Fivefold to $200 Billion as Spending Race Intensifies

(Updates to show Anthropic declined to comment in the 16th paragraph.)The world's largest artificial intelligence firms could earn $200 billion in revenue this year, more than five times the $37 billion they brought in last year, according to estimates from Menlo Ventures.The venture capital firm has tracked AI revenue growth from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet's Google (GOOG, GOOGL), OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor and other companies for the past three years.Revenue, which in 2024 was $11.5 billion, is on track to blow previous years' numbers out of the water, Derek Xiao, a principal at Menlo and co-author of the firm's annual AI research report, said in an interview with."We've always actually had a trend of underestimating how these things grow because it's hard to predict an exponential, but I would put it at $200 billion," he said.While that number is an estimate, growth in AI revenue since January "hockey sticked" and is based on new models of AI now being used, he said."Instead of just this call and response chat pattern that we've seen traditionally, you have background agents that can run for minutes or hours at a time, and that unlocks an order of magnitude more of both things that it can do, but also spend on some of these AI tools," Xiao said.The revenue growth is at the heart of an ongoing debate as company spending has raised fears of an AI bubble. Capital expenditures by Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc. (META) -- collectively known as hyperscalers because they offer massive cloud computing services and global data center infrastructure -- is expected to be around $800 billion this year, with another $1 trillion in 2027, according to the companies and analyst estimates.The investment in new data centers, software and equipment was so large in the first quarter that it accounted for about two-thirds of the growth in US gross domestic product, according to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.While revenue growth has been robust, the capital outlays are still sparking fears that spending has gotten too far ahead of future earnings potential."Most enterprises are yet to generate any returns from their AI spending," James Covello, head of Global Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, said in a note to clients this week."The companies making the models and the hyperscalers building the AI infrastructure are burning through cash and boosting their borrowing. While semiconductor companies are seeing record revenue and profits, the overall dynamic is 'unprecedented and unsustainable,'" Goldman Sachs said in a summary of Covello's report.Covello cited a Massachusetts Institute of Technology study last year that said 95% of AI investment has had no effect on company earnings. While AI tools helped improve individual worker efficiency, "the core barrier to scaling is not infrastructure, regulation, or talent."It is learning," the MIT study said. "Most GenAI systems do not retain feedback, adapt to context, or improve over time."Still, the revenue growth in the AI sector is unlike anything most analysts have seen in other technologies including the advent of the personal computer or the Internet. On the consumer side, AI adoption "has been spectacular," Covello said in his note. He cited a Stanford Institute of Human-Centered AI study that found that 53% of consumers have adopted generative AI tools within three years of the release of ChatGPT."The bull-bear gap on AI is wider than almost anything I've written about," said Philip Dubach, a strategy consultant and independent researcher who has written widely about AI.He cited reports that showed OpenAI went from $2 billion in annualized run-rate revenue to $24 billion in 24 months and Anthropic growth from $1 billion to $30 billion in 15 months as "unprecedented growth rates." Anthropic declined to comment and OpenAI didn't immediately respond to a request for comment Friday.Yet "the math on capex still doesn't close at any plausible revenue figure I can build up to," he said.Dubach estimates that year-to-date 2026 revenue for AI is about $100 billion shared between Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, Amazon and Google. That figure accounts for double-counting that's common in the industry, he said. Many AI systems are integrated into each other and their services can overlap.The capex spending, however, "is a staggering amount of money chasing returns that haven't fully landed," Dubach said.In the three months through March, Microsoft reported 30% revenue growth in its Intelligent Cloud segment, with sales for its cloud-based computing Azure service up 40%. Google Cloud revenue rose 63% from a year earlier; Amazon Web Services was up 28%.Microsoft and Amazon declined to comment to, while Google didn't respond to a request for comment."The thing is, can these companies grow their revenue fast enough to fund the AI build that's required?" said Bruce Murray, CEO and chief investment officer at the Murray Wealth Group.Murray, who owns all four stocks, said the companies have other business lines to generate the capital to spend on building out their AI infrastructure."It's going to be really difficult to tell who gets over their skis a little too far," he said. As a long-term investor Murray said he has confidence that the AI play will pan out."Meta's maybe the one we'd be the most concerned about, but still, on a relative basis we're still sticking with it," he said. Meta's first-quarter ad revenue rose 33%. The company didn't respond to a request for comment.The Facebook parent "is growing nicely in their advertising business, but it seems to be a bit behind on getting something achievable with AI that's actually going to generate the money," Murray said.One area of AI revenue that has yet to emerge is retail users. A separate Menlo Ventures report from June 2025 found that while 61% of consumers it surveyed had used AI in the past six months, only 3% of users were paying for it. Still, companies including Google and Amazon can earn advertising revenue from those users who aren't yet paying. "My wife uses ChatGPT for everything before she sends it out," but doesn't pay for it, Murray said.As a venture capital firm, Menlo Ventures invests in some of the companies it analyzes such as Anthropic, Wispr Flow, OpenRouter, Numeric and others.Menlo's Xiao said the firm saw very different activity in AI revenue compared with what the MIT report concluded last year."Part of our report was sort of standing in opposition to the MIT report, pointing to the real use cases and the real enterprise dollars that are flowing into the ecosystem and being spent and actually transforming how work is done," Xiao said. "AI looks a lot different from previous waves that we've seen where there has been maybe irrational exuberance."The demand for the tech that's driving the spending may appear "scary," he said."If you contrast that to the build out of the telco boom in the early 2000s, they were laying thousands of miles of fiber that would not be used for years," Xiao said. "There's a difference between this time as opposed to last time, that I think does make it quite exciting, at least from our view. It feels like this time is much more sustainable."Matthew LeisingPrice: $426.36, Change: $+16.93, Percent Change: +4.14%

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Update: AI Revenue May Jump Fivefold to $200 Billion as Spending Race Intensifies