Russia's diesel output fell by about 10% in May, extending April's about 10% decline, as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries forced temporary shutdowns and curtailed operations, Reuters analysis showed on Friday.
The disruptions have left Russia balancing reduced domestic fuel supply against resilient export flows, even as Ukraine intensifies attacks on energy infrastructure to erode Moscow's oil and gas revenues.
However, despite the production declines, seaborne shipments of diesel and gasoil rose 8% over the month in April to about 3.25 million metric tons, the analysis showed, only marginally below year-earlier levels. Export volumes have remained broadly steady into May.
Industry estimates suggest refinery strikes cut diesel output by about 1 million mt in April and a further 600,000 mt in May. Total production stood at about 7.5 million mt in March.
Russia has so far prioritized maintaining export flows, even as domestic demand rises seasonally with the peak agricultural period.
The country's policymakers have reportedly discussed the possibility of an export ban. However, market participants say such a move remains unlikely, given the operational strain it could impose on refiners already affected by outages.
The supply shock comes at a time of heightened volatility in global energy markets amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, refinery outages in Russia may limit its ability to capitalize fully on elevated prices.
The evolving energy shock adds another layer of complexity to global oil flows, as Russia attempts to sustain exports while absorbing sustained pressure on its refining system.