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US Oil Update: Futures Mixed as Iran Peace Deal Hopes Temper Supply Shock Fears

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Crude futures diverged in midday trading on Thursday, paring gains from the previous session, on renewed optimism that the three-month conflict could be nearing a resolution.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.41% to $89.01 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 0.56% to $93.76/bbl.

Futures rallied earlier Thursday after the US and Iran traded military strikes.

US crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels to 441.7 mmbbls in the week ended May 22, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Thursday. The decline falls below Macquarie's forecast of a 1.4-mmbbl draw for the week ending May 22.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories dropped to 365.1 mmbbls for the week ended May 22, down from 374.2 mmbbls a week ago, marking a weekly decline of 9.1 mmbbls, EIA data showed.

Crude inventories are now about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.

US and Iranian negotiators have agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would extend the ceasefire for 60 days and allow "unrestricted" passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without paying tolls to Iran, pending Trump's final approval, according to an Axios report.

The White House confirmed the development toin an emailed response, citing US officials.

However, the agreement between the US and Iran still needs final approval from President Trump, who has told mediators he wants a few days to make the final decision.

On Thursday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard targeted a US air base in Kuwait with ballistic missiles, which the US Central Command said were successfully intercepted.

The attack came after US forces launched fresh strikes in Iran against a military site believed to threaten American troops and commercial shipping through the Hormuz.

The tentative agreement between the US and Iran could bring the two sides closer to reopening the Hormuz and help alleviate a global energy crisis that has sent fuel costs to record highs.

The International Energy Agency said in its May Oil Market Report that with Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Arabian Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels, with over 14 million barrels per day of oil now shut in.

Kpler strategists said negotiations between the US and Iran remain the key variable for transiting the Strait, with access likely to remain selective until a clearer framework for navigation is agreed.

On Wednesday, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority, accusing the agency of extorting commercial vessels in the strategic waterway to fund the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

"The Iranian military's latest attempt to extort global maritime trade is proof that Economic Fury has left the regime desperate for cash," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

Secretary Bessent separately warned Oman against collaborating with Iran over a tolling mechanism.

"Oman, in particular, should know that the US Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved - directly or indirectly - in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized," he said.

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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise After Storage Build Misses Estimates

US natural gas futures climbed after government data showed a storage build slightly below expectations, trimming the surplus versus seasonal norms.Front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract both rose 5.69% to $3.271 per million British thermal units.According to the US Energy Information Administration, working gas in storage rose by 92 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 22, bringing total inventories to 2,483 Bcf. The build came in just under analyst expectations of 93-98 Bcf and below the 104 Bcf injection recorded a year earlier.The latest data leaves stocks 6.2% above the five-year historical average, down slightly from a 149 Bcf surplus the prior week to 144 Bcf. Year-on-year inventories now sit roughly 0.9% higher.NatGasWeather.com forecasts a modest storage build of at least 87 Bcf for next week, citing record heat across the US East last week, offset by cooler-than-normal conditions in the Northwest, Mountain West, and Plains.For the coming week, it expects overall weak national demand as systems bring showers, thunderstorms, and largely seasonal temperatures in the 60s-80s, with pockets of 90s and 50s.On the demand side, NRG Energy data showed a 2.5 Bcf per day drop in power sector consumption, only partially offset by a 1.3 Bcf/d rise in residential and commercial demand. Total US gas demand is expected to decline by 0.8 Bcf/d, even as LNG feedgas edges up 0.2 Bcf/d.It said dry gas production has also increased by 0.6 Bcf/d, hovering just below 108 Bcf/d over the past week, adding to near-term supply pressure.Geopolitical risk premiums also eased following an Axios report that US and Iranian negotiators have tentatively agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire framework and reopen talks on Iran's nuclear program, pending US presidential approval.The draft reportedly includes provisions to keep shipping through the Strait of Hormuz open, reduce maritime disruptions, and gradually ease sanctions-related restrictions on limited Iranian oil exports.A restoration of flows would ease global LNG logistics constraints and could soften European gas prices ahead of the winter storage cycle, where inventories remain structurally tight.

Oil & Energy

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Mixed as US-Iran Deal Optimism Temper Supply Fears

EMEA crude futures diverged in after-hours trading on Thursday, trimming earlier gains, as renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal helped offset geopolitical risk premiums tied to Middle East supply concerns.Brent crude futures slipped 0.51% to $93.81 per barrel, while Murban oil futures climbed 3.76% to $93.31/bbl. Prices rallied earlier Thursday after the US and Iran exchanged military strikes."The market remains caught between pricing the prospect of a deal and the growing realization that a resolution still looks increasingly elusive," Saxo Bank strategists said on Thursday.US and Iran negotiators have reportedly reached a tentative agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program. However, the agreement between the US and Iran still needs final approval from President Trump, who has told mediators he wants a few days to make the final decision.The tentative agreement comes at a moment when the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared to be wavering.On Thursday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard targeted a US air base in Kuwait with ballistic missiles, which the US Central Command said were successfully intercepted.The attack came after US forces launched fresh strikes in Iran against a military site believed to threaten American troops and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Saxo Bank analysts said Brent crude surged on Wednesday after renewed US attacks near the Hormuz and retaliatory IRGC strikes targeting US bases, underscoring the limited prospect for a near-term peace deal as the two sides remained far apart on steps needed to reopen the Strait.On Wednesday, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority, accusing the agency of extorting commercial vessels in the strategic waterway to fund the Islamic Revolutionary Guard."The Iranian military's latest attempt to extort global maritime trade is proof that Economic Fury has left the regime desperate for cash," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.Secretary Bessent separately warned Oman against collaborating with Iran over a tolling mechanism."Oman, in particular, should know that the US Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved - directly or indirectly - in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized," he said.Meanwhile, the latest diplomatic developments and sanctions came as the US increased pressure on Iran with its naval blockade to choke off Iranian oil revenues. The US military has redirected 111 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled four others since imposing the blockade on April 13, the CENTCOM said on Thursday.

Oil & Energy

Update: US, Iran Reach Tentative 60-Day Nuclear Talks Deal Pending Trump Approval

(Updates to include White House response in the 2nd paragraph.)US and Iranian negotiators have tentatively agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program, pending President Donald Trump's final approval, Axios reported, citing two US officials and a regional source involved in the mediation.The White House confirmed the development toin an emailed response, citing US officials.The proposed deal could be announced as early as Sunday, according to the report, although officials cautioned it has not been finalized and could still collapse."This is an agreement to get everybody to the table. We will work out the details in the negotiations," one US official reportedly said.According to Axios, Iranian representatives told mediators they had secured the necessary approvals and were prepared to sign the agreement, though Tehran has not publicly confirmed that claim.Trump was briefed on the proposal but withheld immediate approval. "The president relayed to the mediators that he wants a couple of days to think about it," a US official said.Under the draft memorandum, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would remain "unrestricted," officials said. Iran would remove naval mines from the waterway within 30 days and halt interference with commercial shipping. In return, the US would gradually lift its naval blockade and issue sanctions waivers allowing Iran to resume oil exports.The agreement would also include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon and launch a 60-day negotiation period focused on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and uranium enrichment activities.Washington would discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds as part of the talks, while humanitarian aid and commercial goods deliveries to Iran would also be addressed.The draft memorandum also states that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon would end. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised concerns about that provision and other aspects of the deal during a phone call with Trump on Saturday, Axios said, citing Israeli and US officialsThe White House, the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN, and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office did not immediately respond torequests for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)