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Research Alert: Nextera-dominion Merger: Initial Reaction Tilts Toward A Negative View

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CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

NextEra Energy announced a proposed all-stock merger with Dominion Energy, creating the world's largest regulated electric utility with $249B market cap and $420B enterprise value. Dominion shareholders would receive 0.8138 NEE shares per D share, with NEE shareholders owning 74.5% of the combined entity. Our initial reaction tilts negative on the merger, as financial benefits appear modest relative to transaction complexity and regulatory risks. Management expects the deal to be immediately EPS accretive with 9%+ long-term adjusted EPS CAGR versus 8%+ standalone, plus improved rate base growth and regulatory mix. However, we see material approval risks given expected resistance from Virginia and South Carolina regulators, with NEE facing $4.83B-$6.52B termination fees if the deal fails. We question whether NEE could achieve that incremental 1% EPS growth organically rather than through this complex merger, and whether the PJM expansion remains attractive given increasing uncertainties.

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