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RBC Previews This Week's Payrolls in Canada

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Canada will release the March Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) on Thursday, said RBC.

The SEPH will be watched closely after a sharp drop in jobs in the timelier Labour Force Survey (LFS) in 2026 to April, noted the bank.

SEPH employment counts have been persistently lagging paid employment counts in the LFS -- unchanged from a year ago as of February in SEPH versus a 0.4% increase in the LFS. Still, job vacancies in the SEPH, which aren't available from the LFS, have been edging higher in a sign labour demand is stabilizing, stated RBC.

The bank expects SEPH wage growth will continue to underperform the surprisingly firm LFS readings in recent months. SEPH wage growth has been running around 3%, which is more consistent with an elevated unemployment rate versus the 4.5% plus readings from the LFS in March and April.

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