RBC Maintains 1.3500-1.3900 USD/CAD Trading Range

RBC Capital Markets said USD/CAD has been choppy over the past week amid ongoing Iran-related headlines and month-end flows, with the currency pair showing a muted reaction to Canada's latest GDP data.

In its CAD Weekly Soundbites report, RBC said that if the U.S. and Iran were to agree to the 60-day memorandum of understanding, an initial selloff in the U.S. dollar on "risk-on" sentiment would further drag USD/CAD lower.

Having said that, the bank noted that Canada's weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP, albeit somewhat tempered by the revision-prone strong April estimate, reinforces that the Bank of Canada is likely to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

RBC added that even if a deal were to be reached, the Federal Reserve is still likely to hold rates.

"This means U.S.-Canada rate differentials remain relatively wide in the coming months and the USD retains its status as a higher-yielder in G10 (i.e. not providing a clear reason to sell the USD apart from initial euphoria on any potential deal) - this acts as a floor under USD/CAD," RBC said.

The bank added that the Canadian dollar also faces the upcoming USMCA Joint Review.

"We have been citing a trading range of 1.3500 to 1.3900 for the coming months. That continues to hold, but there is risk that we may have to shade that range higher," RBC said.

George Davis of RBC Capital Markets said the rally in USD/CAD has stalled against resistance at 1.3869 after the daily RSI study moved to overbought levels.

"Nonetheless, prices will have to pierce trendline support at 1.3737 to just neutralize the topside risks that are present. Above 1.3869, an area of strong congestion at 1.3932 serves as strong resistance," Davis said.

National Bank of Canada Raises Minera Alamos' Price Target to C$9.50 from C$8.50; Outperform Rating Kept

National Bank of Canada on Friday raised its price target on the shares of Minera Alamos (MAI.V) to C$9.50 from C$8.50 per share while maintaining its outperform rating.The analysts said the company has completed a major restructuring with a clean capital structure and a clear multi-year growth plan. The start of construction at Copperstone marks a key step toward restarting mine development.The analysts expect production to scale from 35 thousand ounces (koz) in 2026 to over 150 koz per year, driven by a series of low-cost projects, starting with Copperstone at 46 koz per year ramping in mid-2027, Goldrock at 40 koz around 2028, and Cerro de Oro adding roughly 55 to 60 koz."We have updated our model following several recent developments from Minera Alamos over the past week, including: the Copperstone pre-feasibility study and construction decision, US$45 million credit facility drawdown and restructuring of gold prepays and call options, repurchase of a net smelter return on Cerro De Oro, release of Q1 financial statements, and adoption of a USD financial reporting standard," the analysts said.The analysts said they have adopted the Copperstone PFS mine plan, with first production now expected in Q3 2027 instead of Q1 2027. The project is expected to produce 42 koz per year at a life-of-mine AISC of US$1,430 per ounce. The model also includes an added US$80 million NAV benefit tied to about 300 koz additional resources that could support future open-pit mining upside.Following model updates, the analysts said their net asset value per share increased 6% to C$13.59 from C$12.78.Price: $7.09, Change: $+0.16, Percent Change: +2.31%

$MAI.V

RBC Maintains 1.3500-1.3900 USD/CAD Trading Range

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