RBC Capital Markets adjusted its forecasts for Galp Energia (GALP.LS) amid a model update ahead of the Portuguese energy company's second-quarter results on July 27.
"Similar to peers, Galp has noted that refining margins have strengthened into July (~$20/bbl). At a headline level this is weaker than peers, perhaps suggesting that Galp's simple refining system may not be able to fully take advantage of dislocations in crude/products markets like some peers (RBCe for Repsol closer to $35/bbl currently). Importantly, it appears that utilisation in the refinery was close to 100% in 2Q, showing robust operational performance," the research firm wrote in a Monday note. "The combination of higher midstream earnings and a lower expected impact from Brazil export taxes leaves our upgrades much more impactful at the net income level rather than EBITDA."
As such, analysts raised their projected group EBITDA for the quarter to 1.28 billion euros from 1.21 billion euros, against the Visible Alpha consensus of 1.27 billion euros. The adjusted net income forecast was increased to 518 million euros from 405 million euros, above the 481 million-euro consensus estimate.
EBITDA and EPS projections for 2026 through 2028 were also upwardly revised. The outperform-rated stock has a price target of 22 euros.