Persian Gulf Outlook Lifts Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asian, Europe Higher

FINWIRES Analysis

The risk-on surge is a textbook geopolitical relief trade: falling oil on Hormuz reopening hopes lifts equities, especially rate-sensitive and energy-consuming sectors, while semis lead on growth optimism. The sharp crude drop is double-edged, easing inflation but pressuring energy-sector earnings, and the rally's durability hinges on the peace plan actually holding. Wednesday's Fed decision and retail sales now become the next catalyst with markets pricing no move.

Key Takeaways

Hormuz reopening hopes drive oil down, equities up

Semis and Nikkei lead the risk-on move

Fed expected to hold rates Wednesday

Wall Street futures pointed sharply higher pre-bell Monday, after oil prices declined on statements from Washington and Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz will re-open soon, as part of a larger peace plan.

In the futures, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Nasdaq inclined 2% and the Dow Jones was up 0.9%.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded down 5.3% at $80.35, in morning hours.

The VanEck Semiconductor Exchange-Traded Fund (SMH) traded up 3.6% pre-bell.

Investors also look forward to the Federal Reserve's rate decision, slated for Wednesday following a two-day policy session. Markets expect no rate moves by the central bank.

The national retail sales report for May is slated for a Wednesday am release.

Asian exchanges traded sharply higher overnight, led by a 5% upsurge on Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index, as crude prices fell.

European bourses tracked moderately north midday on the continent.

On the economic calendar for Monday is the Empire State Manufacturing Index for June at 8:30 am ET, followed by the industrial production release for May at 9:15 am, and then the housing market index for June at 10 am.

In pre-market action, bitcoin traded at $65,679, and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.44%. Spot gold commanded $4,339 an ounce.

Australian Capital City Housing Prices Forecast to Fall in 2026, ANZ Says

Capital city housing prices in Australia are forecast to fall 2.1% this year and 3.3% in 2027, ANZ Research said in a report on Monday.The bank had previously forecast 2.8% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. It attributed the reduction in forecasts to a combination of global uncertainty, three consecutive cash rate hikes, and recent housing policy changes which have led to a sharper than expected slowdown in the housing market.Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne are expected to fall around 8% in 2026, with prices at a nine-month low in Sydney and a 12-month low in Melbourne. A price correction in Adelaide in South Australia is seen to lead to prices falling 6.4% in 2027.Prices are expected to partly recover in 2028, rising 3.8%, supported by 50 basis points of forecast rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in late 2027.Meanwhile, investor housing credit growth is expected to decline from a likely peak of more than 10% year over year in the June quarter to negative 0.8% in the first quarter of 2028, ANZ said. Total housing credit growth is expected to ease sharply to a low of 2.9% year over year in early 2028, from 7.1% in the March quarter.Over the medium term, a structural shift is expected in the composition of housing credit, with owner-occupier credit becoming a stronger source of growth.Total private sector credit growth should moderate to 4.2% by the March 2028 quarter from 7.8% in the March quarter before moving higher over the remainder of 2028, per the report.Business credit growth is forecast to slow to 6.6% year over year by the end of 2027 before recovering in 2028. Personal credit growth is seen easing to a low of 1.4% year over year in early 2028, the report said.

ASX 200

South Korean Securities, Futures Trading Firms' Net Income Jumps 77% in Q1

The preliminary net income of securities and futures trading companies in South Korea jumped 77.1% to 4.327 trillion won in the January-March quarter from 2.443 trillion won in the same period last year, the Financial Supervisory Service said in a Sunday release.Return on equity added 1.6 percentage points to 4.3% for the first quarter from 2.7% a year earlier, according to the release.The securities companies earned a total of 6.693 trillion won in commission income in Q1, up 98.9% from 3.365 trillion won a year earlier, it said.

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South Korea's Household Loans Accelerate in May

South Korea's household loans rose by 9.3 trillion won in May, sharply higher than the 3.5 trillion won increase in April, according to a June 11 release from the Financial Services Commission.Home-backed mortgage loans grew by 4 trillion won during the month, easing from a 5.5 trillion won gain in April.At banks, mortgage lending accelerated to 3.2 trillion won from 2.7 trillion won, while growth in non-bank mortgage lending slowed sharply to 800 billion won from 2.8 trillion won.Other loans increased by 5.3 trillion won, rebounding from a 2 trillion won decline in April, driven by credit loans, which swung to a 3.4 trillion won gain from a 900 billion won drop.