US packaged food companies' upcoming quarterly results are likely to highlight a "tough" setup for the industry amid weaker demand and increasing costs, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Tuesday.
The brokerage flagged downside potential to Wall Street's projections for the back half of the year and beyond given mounting cost pressures. The industry at the same time is facing structural changes "that could materially shift the growth trajectory for some time," UBS analysts Peter Grom and Sona Fernandes said in the note to clients.
Campbell's (CPB), J.M. Smucker (SJM), General Mills (GIS), Conagra Brands (CAG), Simply Good Foods (SMPL), and McCormick (MKC) comprise the brokerage's packaged food coverage. The companies are expected to report results over the coming weeks.
"As has been the case for some time, we expect top-line trends to remain under pressure for most (of the names), and when layering in cost pressures that have ratcheted higher, we see downside risk to Street numbers looking out to the back half of the year and beyond," Grom and Fernandes said.
Campbell's faces a "negative" setup ahead of its results amid "demand trends (that are) yet to show meaningful improvement and cost pressures that could drive out year estimates lower," the analysts wrote.
UBS sees an "unfavorable setup" for General Mills ahead of its results. "We believe (fiscal 2027) guidance will fall short of expectations driven by top-line growth that remains underwhelming, cost pressures that will likely offset benefits from (corporate strategy) savings, and lapping unique items such as the 53rd week, incentive comp, and a divestiture," Grom and Fernandes said.
For Conagra, the fundamental setup into its latest results continues to be "challenged, as top-line trends remain underwhelming," with cost pressures expected to lead to fiscal 2027 outlook falling short of the Street's views at the midpoint, according to the note.
Simply Good Foods' "demand trends remain under pressure and cost pressures remain elevated making it difficult to step in," Grom and Fernandes said.
UBS sees J.M. Smucker and, to some extent, McCormick as "partial exceptions" in its downbeat industry outlook.
J.M. Smucker "remains one of the few companies across our packaged food coverage where we see a path to organic sales growth and strong bottom-line delivery" looking out over the next 12 to 18 months, the analysts said. McCormick's fundamentals "remain better than most, but the company is also not immune to moderating category trends and cost pressures," according to Grom and Fernandes.
"In many ways, we think growth algorithms for the group could be permanently impaired, and when comparing valuation to other industries that have structural top-line concerns, we think there in fact could be room for further multiple compression," the analysts wrote.
Price: $21.12, Change: $+0.04, Percent Change: +0.19%
